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A US Recession through the lens of Polymarket
In this report we will explore the probability of a US recession based on on-chain Polymarket data. We will then also identify some differences in the probabilities between several related Polymarket markets that track the path of monetary policy by the Fed, and compare them to similar measures in traditional finance markets. Our goal is to highlight the discrepancies in sentiment based on data from on-chain and off-chain markets and identify some dislocations between markets.
April 18, 2025
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