Crypto Risk Appetite Report 9th January 2026

Weekly Recap of Market Sentiment

Summary

• After underperforming both traditional US equities and precious safe-haven metals last year, BTC has begun 2026 on a stronger footing. Risk appetite across BTC, ETH and the wider altcoin market has slowly rebounded after forming a low in mid-December, though based on our indicators, is still a long way from any peak euphoria.

• Volatility over the past week has picked up as a result of market participants returning back from the festive holiday period, as well as a weekend military intervention by the US in Venezuela which concluded with the capture of the nation’s President, Nicolás Maduro.

• The macroeconomic data fog that characterised much of Q4 2025 is slowly beginning to clear, though recent data showcases mixed views of the US economy. While tomorrow’s Nonfarm payrolls will no doubt be the most important of recent macro releases, yesterday’s JOLTS report showed the month of November had the lowest job openings since September 2024, while the ISM’s Services PMI report for December showed the strongest reading for the Services Index since October 2024 – particularly important given that the services sector accounts for 2/3's of the US economy. Friday will also see the US Supreme Court make a verdict on the legality of President Trump’s global tariffs. Taken together with NFP, that might explain the recent halt in the risk-on asset rally.

• Macro data isn’t the only source of mixed messaging in the last week however: multiple Fed speakers have provided diverging outlooks for monetary policy and their view of the US economy. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin believes that the current policy rate is now "within the range of estimates of neutral", while Governor Stephen Miran claims "well over 100 basis points of cuts are going to be justified this year." Additionally, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said that if her forecasts for the economy are realised, “then some modest further adjustments to the funds rate would likely be appropriate later in the year.”

• Barkin did provide an optimistic outlook for 2026, which could help bolster the case for risk sentiment should his outlook path be realised. He said “a lot of stimulus is set to come into the economy”, including “Fiscal stimulus from the recent tax bill”. In addition, Barkin argued that “High asset values have eased financial conditions” and the impact of the Fed’s 175bps of cuts over the last 16 months “should flow into the economy as well.”

Risk Appetite Index

BLOCK SCHOLES BTC RISK APPETITE INDEX – Our in-house BTC Risk Appetite Index bottomed out on December 14, 2025. That was days before BTC marked in a local intraday bottom of $84.5K on December 18, 2025. Since then, the Risk Appetite indicator has slowly begun to rebound – in line with a recovery in spot price, particularly since the new year began.

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Historically, when the Risk Appetite Index has crossed the -1 threshold from below, spot price has increased over 20% in the following three month period on average.

So far, BTC is following the historical trajectory. Year-to-date it has risen from $87K all the way up to $94K, though that $94-95K region is currently proving to be an area of resistance through which spot price is yet to break. As such, BTC retreated from that price region during its most recent attempt earlier in the week on January 5, 2025, and it currently changes hands at $90K.

BLOCK SCHOLES ETH RISK APPETITE INDEX – Risk appetite has also rebounded in ETH, which broke past its own psychological resistance level of $3,000 at the start of the year. Sentiment in ETH has also been bolstered by two other factors.

First, an increased demand for staking – the Beacon Chain’s entry queue has grown past 1.7M ETH, the most since September 2023. Secondly, we are seeing tentative signs of a rebound in Spot Ethereum ETF inflows. After a long streak of net outflows following the October 10, 2025 liquidation cascade, the past five trading days have seen net flows of +$199.7M – with three of the five days having inflows.

As seen below, based on historical cases, the median 100-day ETH return following a crossing from below -1 in the Risk Appetite Index has been 40%, with the current threshold crossing so far following the historical pattern closely.

‍BLOCK SCHOLES ALTCOIN RISK APPETITE INDEX – With risk-appetite in both BTC and ETH increasing since mid-December 2025, it is perhaps unsurprising to see the same in the wider altcoin market too. Again, a crossing of -1 from below has historically marked a turning point in sentiment for altcoins in the past. Sentiment in altcoins may continue rising should the CLARITY Act bill be passed. Currently, a markup hearing is scheduled for January 15, 2025 as Democrats and Republicans continue to debate the bill.

Derivatives Markets Sentiment Index

BLOCK SCHOLES BTC SENTIMETER INDEX

BLOCK SCHOLES ETH SENTIMETER INDEX

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