Bitcoin hits $69k

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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

• Bitcoin continued its slump yesterday reaching $70,000 before briefly bouncing off that level. The last time it traded that low was the day of the US election in November 2024, 15 months ago. 
• The wider crypto market continues to bleed further also — ETH is down 32% over the past 30 days and currently hovers around $2,100. 
• The decline in yesterday’s session was in line with a selloff across other macro asset classes as traders continue to de-risk. The Nasdaq-100 declined 1.77% and the S&P 500 fell by more than 0.5%. 

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• While derivatives markets paint an undoubtedly bearish picture, the current 40% drawdown from all-time high is yet to result in the same level of panic we’ve seen in historical bear market crashes. Short-tenor at-the-money implied volatility has jumped up significantly for BTC and ETH, currently trading at 60% and 86% from just 34% and 46% only a week ago, respectively. However, not only is short-dated IV trading lower than delivered volatility, suggesting a smaller move in the demand for optionality, implied vol also remains far lower than the 100% plus levels seen in BTC during the 2022 bear market. 
• Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows continue to point towards declining appetite — after inflows of $561.8M on Monday, the products have seen outflows totaling $816.9M over the past two sessions. 

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• Precious metals continue to whipsaw after last Friday’s volatility. Silver reversed two days of recovery yesterday, falling from $90 to $74 per ounce, a more than 17% drop, while gold struggled to hold above $5,000 per ounce and now trades at $4,800. 

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• Macro data out of the US showed a diverging picture: the ADP jobs report showed tepid growth in employment, while the ISM’s services report showed maintained growth in the services sector. 
• According to ADP Research, US companies added only 22,000 private-sector jobs in January (following a downward revision in December), which was below the estimates from all economists in Bloomberg’s survey. 
• The jobs data comes as the BLS’s nonfarm payrolls report has now been delayed from this Friday, due to the partial US government shutdown. 
• According to the ADP report, most of the job creation was concentrated in healthcare and “Leading the slowdown was manufacturing, which has lost jobs every month since March 2024” (Back in April 2025, Trump promised to revive the manufacturing sector in the US stating that “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country, and you see it happening already. We will supercharge our domestic industrial base.”)

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• US services on the other hand showed continued strong growth. The ISM’s index of services was unchanged at 53.8 in January, matching the highest since October 2024, with values above 50 indicating an expansion in services.The Business Activity gauge climbed more than 2 points to 57.4 — its highest since October 2024.

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• Diplomatic talks are set between the US and Iran for Friday, with President Trump sending Iran’s leaders a warning earlier this week. Speaking on NBC News, Trump said “I would say he should be very worried, yeah. He should be. As you know, they are negotiating with us”, referring to Iran’s Supreme Leader.
• The Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Wednesday that the talks, regarding a nuclear deal, are scheduled to be held in Muscat, Oman. 

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• Separately, when asked about his nomination for the next Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, Trump said “If he came in and said, ‘I want to raise it,’ he would not have gotten the job, no”. 
• Trump said there was “not much” doubt the Fed will continue to lower interest rates because currently “we’re way high in interest”. 
• When asked whether Warsh is aware of Trump’s demands to lower rates, he responded, “I think he does, but I think he wants to anyway”. 
• In a speech yesterday, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook argued that the Fed needs to bring inflation back to target soon, in order to maintain its credibility — “Until I see stronger evidence that inflation is moving sustainably back down to target, that is where my focus will be, in the absence of unexpected changes in the labor market”.  

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• During Scott Bessent’s testimony in front of the House committee, he was asked “Does the Treasury Department or the various components of the FOMC have the authority to bailout BTC?”. Bessent confused by the question replied, “What exactly does bailout BTC mean?”. He then added that as Treasury Secretary, he does not have the authority to order banks to buy Bitcoin, or invest US tax dollars into the asset. 

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• A senior House US representative, Ro Khanna, has launched a probe into Trump-linked crypto firm World Liberty Financial after reports that a UAE royal–connected entity invested up to $500M for a 49% stake shortly before Trump’s inauguration.
• Khanna said the investment may overlap with later U.S. policy actions, including AI chip export approvals to UAE-linked firms with alleged China ties and an MGX-backed Binance deal that coincided with political meetings and a subsequent presidential pardon.

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• Japan’s SBI Holdings and Startale Group have unveiled a proof of concept for Strium, a purpose-built Layer 1 blockchain aimed at tokenised securities and real-world assets onchain with a particular focus as a foundational exchange layer for Asia’s onchain securities markets.
• The development builds on Startale Group and SBI Holdings’ August 2025 partnership announcement to jointly launch an onchain trading platform focused on tokenized equities and real-world assets.

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• As digital asset treasuries look to boost yields on their holdings, Hyperliquid-based treasury firm Hyperion DeFi Inc. (NASDAQ: HYPD) announced plans to use its HYPE tokens as collateral for onchain options strategies to earn premium.
• The company is working with the Rysk protocol to launch an onchain options vault on Hyperliquid, with plans to eventually open the structure to other institutional HYPE holders.

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This Week’s Calendar:

Charts of the Day:

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