ETF Flows Turn Positive

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• Bybit x Block Scholes: “2026: It's Different This Time?”

• Tokenised Markets on Bitget UEX: Unlocking Real-World Assets On-Chain for 24/7 Global Access

• DeepBook - “The Backbone of Sui DeFi Liquidity”

• Premia x Block Scholes: Introducing Kyan

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

• After weeks of sideways trading below $90K, BTC reached its highest since Dec 11 in early Asian trading hours touching $93K, while ETH currently trades firmly above $3,100.
• Gold and silver prices also rallied as much as 2% and 5% respectively amid geopolitical concerns.

• After months of threatening a military campaign against Venezuela, over the weekend the US carried out a series of airstrikes in the country which resulted in the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife. 
• According to the administration, Maduro’s capture is due to his alleged involvement in drug trafficking and in stemming the flow of illegal narcotics into the US. 
• President Trump however has also made clear that the US has plans to get involved in Venezuela’s oil industry.
• Following Maduro’s capture, Trump said “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country”. 
• When asked about plans for governing Venezuela in the interim, Trump responded “We’re going to be running it with a group, and we’re going to make sure it’s run properly”. He also said that the US would work with Maduro’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to “make Venezuela great again”.

• BTC’s slow spot price recovery back above $92K has also occurred alongside initial, tentative signs of a rebound in Spot ETF sentiment. The eleven Spot ETF products tracking BTC had seen weeks of outflows following the October 10 liquidation event, but recorded substantial inflows of $471M last Friday, the largest daily inflow since mid-November 2025.
• Short-tenor IV levels for BTC and ETH increased over the first half of the weekend, but have since traded sideways. 7-Day ATM IV jumped up from 37% to 44% and 50% to 59% for BTC and ETH respectively over the weekend, while the modestly positive skew in short-dated vol smiles has now abated back towards neutral levels for BTC and slightly negative for ETH. 

• US equity futures edged up slightly today after US stocks ended last Friday’s trading session modestly higher. The S&P 500 Index closed up 0.2%, though the Nasdaq-100 was down 0.2%, driven by losses in a number of major tech firms.

• The 10Y US treasury yield has jumped from 4.1% at the start of the year to a high of 4.19% on Friday before dropping slightly amidst the Venezuelan intervention. That move in the 10Y yield has resulted in the 2s10s treasury curve to be at its steepest level since January 2022. 
• During a panel discussion on the weekend, former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen raised concerns about fiscal dominance in the US, stating that “The preconditions for fiscal dominance are clearly strengthening”. 
• The concept of fiscal dominance refers to the scenario where the Fed is forced into keeping interest rates low in order to minimise the US government’s debt servicing costs, even amidst high inflation in the US. 
• Speaking on the same panel, Loretta Mester, a former president of the Cleveland Fed, said that the “scariest” aspect of the current debt problem in the US is the Trump administration’s apparent reluctance to solve the problem — “Previous governments knew they were on a precipice… I think this government may not realise the implications.”

• Also on the weekend, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said in a speech that she sees “inflation moderating, the labour market stabilising and growth coming in at around 2% this year”. 
• She added that if her forecasts are realised, “then some modest further adjustments to the funds rate would likely be appropriate later in the year.”

This Week’s Calendar:

‍

‍

Charts of the Day: