Bitcoin Breaks 96K Barrier

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• Premia x Block Scholes: Introducing Kyan

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

• After more than a month-long period of rangebound trading between $85K and $95K, in early Asia trading BTC surged past $96K, up 3.01% over the past 24 hours and to its highest level since Nov 16, 2025. That move has lifted the rest of the crypto market up along with it — ETH is trading 6.14% higher above $3.3K, BNB is up 2.93% and XRP trades close to 4% higher.
• The rally was also supported by strong Spot ETF inflows. Yesterday, Bitcoin Spot ETFs purchased $753.8M worth of bitcoins, their largest single-day inflow since Oct 7, 2025 when the ETF products purchased $875.6M. Spot ETH ETFs equally saw inflows in yesterday’s session (+$130M), though unlike BTC, that was not a 3-month high. 
• According to data from CoinGlass, the breakout past $96K has seen nearly $600M of short positions liquidated in the past 24 hours, of which $260M was short positions held on BTC.  
• BTC futures-implied yields reacted strongly to the spot price moves. 7-day futures contracts currently trade with a 10% premium over spot price, showcasing a strong demand in futures markets for leveraged exposure. Short-dated volatility smiles also showcase a change in sentiment. Only 24 hours ago, OTM puts traded at a 3% premium to calls — now that premium has compressed to just 0.3%. 

• Over on Wall Street, US equities were pushed lower after a cooler-than-expected CPI report failed to spur any meaningful change to the odds of a January rate cut. 30-day Fed funds futures contracts currently assign an overwhelmingly large 97.2% probability of a pause in January, with a slim 2.8% chance of a 25bps rate cut. 
• The S&P 500 fell from a record high and ended the day 0.19% lower, the Nasdaq-100 fell 0.18% and the Dow Jones retreated 0.8%. 
• Headline annual inflation held at 2.7% in December 2025, consistent with the level in November and with market expectations. Core CPI however came in below expected — year-over-year, it recorded 2.6% (vs expectations of 2.7%), while month-over-month it rose 0.2% (below forecasts of 0.3%). 
• However, the report did show shelter inflation, which accounts for more than one-third of the CPI weighting, rising 0.4% month-over-month, bringing it to 3.2% on an annual basis. 
• Today, we are also expecting the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book alongside a speech by Governor Stephen I. Miran on regulations, the supply side, and monetary policy.

• President Trump nonetheless took the opportunity following the CPI report to continue his attack on Chair Powell and the Fed. On Truth Social he posted, “Great (LOW!) Inflation numbers for the USA. That means that Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell should cut interest rates, MEANINGFULLY!!! If he doesn’t he will just continue to be ‘TOO LATE!’”.
• Other areas of higher inflation included food prices, which rose 0.7% for the month, as well as recreation, airfares and medical care. Gasoline and used car prices fell.
• Trump also expressed his dissatisfaction with Powell when speaking to reporters outside the White House yesterday. He said “He’s billions of dollars over budget, so, either he’s incompetent or he’s crooked” adding that “I don’t know what he is, but he certainly doesn’t do a very good job.” 

• Heads of global central banks, however, would disagree with that statement from Trump. Yesterday, central bank governors from 11 different institutions issued a statement stating that they “stand in full solidarity with the Federal Reserve System and its Chair Jerome H Powell”, an unprecedented show of support for the Fed Chair. 
• The statement wrote “The independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial and economic stability in the interest of the citizens that we serve”. 
• Signatories included ECB’s president, Christine Lagarde, BoE governor Andrew Bailey, and the Bank of Canada chief Tiff Macklem. Lagarde also signed the statement on behalf of 21 national central banks in the Euro Area.
• New York Fed President John Williams also defended his colleague Powell on Monday, saying he was “a man of impeccable integrity”. Williams stated that historical attempts to meddle with central bank independence had often led to “very unfortunate economic outcomes”.

• The lower-than-expected inflation in the US and the attack on Fed independence has helped continue the blistering rally in precious metals. Silver prices advanced as much as 5.3%, breaking past $90 per ounce for the first time in trading today, while gold recorded yet another new high. 

• Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott has released a new crypto market structure draft that would split oversight between the SEC and CFTC and tighten disclosure rules.
• The text would block platforms from paying yield simply for holding payment stablecoins, while still allowing activity-linked incentives tied to actions like transacting, staking, liquidity provision or collateral use.

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