The Fed Decision Week

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• DeepBook - “The Backbone of Sui DeFi Liquidity”

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• Premia x Block Scholes: Introducing Kyan

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• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: Rise of Perp DEXs — and how to catch the opportunity

• How did options markets react to the crypto selloff?

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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

• After trading sideways around $89K in the first half of the weekend, a Sunday rally has pushed BTC back to $92K. Ether also saw a similar price pattern — sideways around $3K before pushing up close to $3.2K now. 
• Spot ETFs tracking each asset ended last week with outflows: Spot BTC ETFs saw cumulative outflows of $87.7M over the week, while ETH Spot ETFs sold $65.4M worth of the second largest token. 
• The term structure of implied volatility for both assets has also modestly inverted. 7D BTC IV trades at 50%, while 180-day options trade with an implied vol of 47%. Similarly, short-dated ETH options contracts trade with an IV of 73%, compared to the 70% IV of longer-dated tenors. 
• Options traders are slightly less bearishly positioned for ETH heading into the rest of the year compared to BTC. 
• That’s most apparent when looking at the volatility smiles of the two assets. 30D BTC skew currently trades at -6% — indicating that OTM puts have a 6 vol point premium to OTM calls. On the other hand, 30D ETH skew shows a smaller 4% premium for puts.

• On Wall Street, the US stock market edged higher on Friday, though fell short of touching a new record high.
• The S&P 500 rose 0.6% intraday, but ultimately closed at +0.2%, putting it within inches of its October ATH and the Nasdaq-100 rose 0.4%. 
• Year-to-date, the S&P 500 index is up more than 17% while the October liquidation crash has wiped out all of BTC’s gains, and it is now at -2% year-to-date. 
• Those 2025 gains were originally driven by a slew of factors including a new US administration determined to make the US the “crypto capital of the world”, as well as increased institutional demand. a new source of demand: institutional buyers. 
• It’s the first time since 2014 that BTC has diverged in its year to date performance from the S&P 500. 
• The FOMC is set to hold its final meeting of the year this Wednesday, with market implied odds pricing in a 87% chance for a 25bps rate cut. 
• Those odds were largely unchanged following an inflation report for the US on Friday. The dated September PCE report was released last week and came in exactly as expected — core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month, in line with the median expectation, while the headline figure came in at 0.3% MoM, also as expected. That kept the year-over-year figure at 2.8% — still sticky and above the 2% target, but stable nonetheless. 
• The report also showed a slowdown in consumer spending in September. Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending was unchanged at 0%, below the expected 0.1% increase and below a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in August. 

• Looking further ahead, Friday’s consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan provided some optimism for US consumers however. The Consumer Sentiment index rose for the first time in five months, with the preliminary December reading coming in at 53.3 (up from 51 in November, and above the median estimate of 52).
• According to the director of the survey, Joanne Hsu, “Consumers have noted that the soaring inflation they feared in April and May 2025 at the height of tariff developments has not come to fruition at this time … Still, inflation expectations over both time horizons remain higher than average readings from both 2024 and 2020.”
• According to Bloomberg, President Trump’s administration is planning to announce a farm aid package worth $12B for US farmers who have been impacted by low crop prices and the president’s tariff policies.
• Part of the package will include up to $11B in one-time payments to crop farmers under the Department of Agriculture’s newly designed Farmer Bridge Assistance program. 
• The aid mirrors relief Trump provided in his first term as president: back in 2018-19 Trump provided $28B in aid to farmers impacted by the US-China trade war. 

• Separately, the US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Sunday that China has been complying with the bilateral trade agreements the two nations came to terms with in late October. 
• Speaking on Fox News, Greer said “So all of these things that we’ve agreed to with the Chinese recently are very concrete, we can monitor them with some ease, and so far, we’re seeing that they’re in compliance.”

• Argentina’s Central Bank, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), is weighing reforms that would lift current restrictions preventing domestic banks from trading digital assets or offering crypto-related services.
• If approved – potentially as early as April 2026 – the move would allow regulated bank-led access to cryptocurrencies, which local exchanges and analysts say could catalyse broader adoption in a market that already processed nearly $94B in crypto transactions between July 2022 and June 2025.
  

• WisdomTree has launched the WisdomTree Physical Lido Staked Ether ETP (LIST) in Europe, an Ethereum product that holds only Lido-minted stETH, according to a statement.
• The firm said LIST is structured to avoid the unstaked buffers traditional products typically use for creations and redemptions.
  

• Robinhood has agreed to acquire Indonesian brokerage PT Buana Capital Sekuritas and digital asset trader PT Pedagang Aset Kripto, marking its entry into Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
• The deals, which remain subject to approval from the Indonesian Financial Services Authority and are expected to close in H1 2026, will see Robinhood continue serving Buana Capital’s existing clients while aiming to roll out its own brokerage and crypto offering in Indonesia, including access to US equities and digital assets. 
• MetaMask is expanding its push into prediction markets with the integration of Polymarket into its mobile wallet, announced in a recent Consensys blog post by Gabriela Helfet.
• Rather than just connecting to Polymarket via a dapp browsers, users can now browse and trade real-world event markets direct inside MetaMask, fund positions with any token on any EVM chain via one-tap funding, and earn MetaMask Rewards points that may feed into a future MASK token airdrop.

This Week’s Calendar:

Charts of the Day:

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