Last Updated:

February 23, 2024

•

8 min read

Crypto Derivatives 20th Feb 24

Weekly crypto-derivatives market analytics, spanning futures, options, and perpetuals.

Crypto

Derivatives

Key Insights

Since the previous update, both BTC and ETH annualised yields have continued to rise, reaching their highest levels since the buildup of leverage preceding BTC's ETF announcement. Continued positive funding rates for BTC and ETH perpetual swaps indicate demand for leveraged long exposure. BTC's SABR ATM implied volatility has risen significantly across all tenors, with a strong skew towards OTM calls in BTC's 25-Delta Risk Reversal, especially at longer-dated tenors. ETH's volatility has also increased notably, particularly at the 3-month tenor, but with a less bullish sentiment at shorter-dated tenors, indicated by a tilt towards puts in the 25-Delta Risk Reversal. Both BTC and ETH implied vol surfaces have trended upward over the past 30 days, suggesting ongoing market volatility across derivatives markets.

Futures Implied Yield, 1-Month Tenor

ATM Implied Volatility, 1-Month Tenor

Futures

BTC Annualised Yields

Consistently risen over the past 10 days to their highest levels since the buildup of leverage ahead of BTC’s ETF.

ETH Annualised Yields

Show a similar premium assigned to futures over ETH’s spot price that has a far steeper term structure than BTC’s.

Perpetual Swap Funding Rates

BTC Funding Rates

Funding rates have remained consistently positive over the past month, indicating demand for leveraged long exposure.

ETH Funding Rates

Perpetual swaps continue to trade at slight premiums to spot prices, as reflected in the consistently high funding rate.

BTC Options

BTC SABR ATM Implied Volatility

Volatility has continued its consistent rise, now 20 points higher than at the beginning of the month.

BTC 25-Delta Risk Reversal

The skew towards OTM calls has shown no signs of reversing yet, reporting a strong tilt at longer-dated tenors.

ETH Options

ETH SABR ATM Implied Volatility

ETH’s volatility reports a similarly high and consistent rise in February, rising slightly higher at a 3M tenor.

ETH 25-Delta Risk Reversal

ETH’s vol skews are far less bullish than BTC’s at shorter-dated tenors, which report a significant tilt towards puts.

Volatility Surface

BTC Implied Volatility Surface

Volatility across the surface has risen in tandem with the strong upward trend in the ATM vol level.

ETH Implied Volatility Surface

Like BTC, reports a consistent and strong trend upward over the past 30 days, focused slightly on 3M and 6M tenors.

Z-Score calculated with respect to the distribution of implied volatility of an option at a given delta and tenor over the previous 30-days of hourly data, timestamp 10:00 UTC, SABR smile calibration.

Volatility Smiles

Historical SABR Volatility Smiles

‍

Scroll back to the top ↑

Andrew Melville

Research Analyst

Share this post

Copy URL

Heading 2

Get insights in your inbox—join our newsletter

Thank you! Your submission has been received!

Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Bybit x Block Scholes: Takeaways from the U.S. Election and What to Look for Next

Donald Trump’s election signals a pivotal shift in cryptocurrency policy, moving from skepticism to advocacy, which may redefine the regulatory landscape. The election result triggered immediate and substantial reactions in the crypto markets, particularly evident in Bitcoin's price surge, reflecting heightened investor optimism. A Republican-controlled U.S. Congress could lead to clearer and more favorable regulations for digital assets, fostering innovation and investment in the sector. As Bitcoin's dominance persists, emerging regulatory clarity may catalyze a resurgence in altcoins, particularly for platforms like Ethereum and Solana, which are poised to benefit from a pro-crypto environment.

Crypto Derivatives 19th November 2024

Derivatives markets continue to reflect the bullish momentum of recent weeks. Spot yields are approaching the positive highs observed last week, signalling robust demand as traders are willing to pay a premium for leveraged long exposure via the futures contracts. Skew levels and perpetual contracts funding rates remain firmly positive, reinforcing the optimistic sentiment and indicating that market participants are seeking exposure to upwards price action. Meanwhile, implied volatility remains within a range-bound pattern, while the term structure remains inverted. Current levels of inversion have yet to surpass the heightened activity seen during the pre-election period, but remain closely linked to spot movements.

DeFi Analytics 14th November 2024

This week's edition of our Crypto DeFi Analytics, This week we highlight the surging demand for blob gas, with the hourly average excess blob gas per Ethereum block reaching 60-80M. Meanwhile, the Beacon Chain deposits remained steady at 32.4M, with ongoing withdrawals and inflows balancing each other out. Ethereum’s gas fees saw a correction, aligning with the post-election rally in ETH’s spot price. The average cost to transfer ETH spiked to $3.40, with burnt gas fees returning to early October levels. An insight into DeFi activity is marked by Uniswap V3 transaction volume on Arbitrum and liquidation activities across Aave and Compound.

Crypto Derivatives 12th November 2024

One week after the election, spot prices have shown remarkable strength, with BTC reaching new all-time highs following an explosive rise. ETH, while not yet at record levels, has also gained upward momentum, displaying a steady increase since the election date. In the derivatives market, sentiment has strengthened for both tokens: futures implied yields, perpetuals funding rates, and skew all indicate a highly positive outlook. ATM implied volatility, which initially dropped after the election event risk passed, has since surged, inverting the term structure. Both BTC and ETH now benefit from a powerful combination of spot price gains and robust bullish derivatives activity, signalling strong demand to participate in further upside potential.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives November 6th

As the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election became clear, short-dated implied volatility levels dropped significantly for both BTC and ETH, with term structures flattening for BTC and evolving into a steep curve for ETH. Leveraged positions, which had unwound during pre-election spot volatility, have since rebounded, leading to a rise in open interest across both perpetuals and futures. Despite the passing of the event risk, positioning across all markets remains close to all-time highs, indicating that traders are willing to continue to pay for leveraged long exposure as BTC trades at all-time highs.

DeFi Analytics 7th November 2024

This week's edition of our Crypto DeFi Analytics, November has seen the Beacon Chain balance drop as withdrawals have dominated, while Ethereum’s on-chain activity slowed despite an increase in it's spot price following the US election. Separately, Solana continues to near Ethereum in gas fee generation. There was an increased demand in blob gas usage on Ethereum with Hourly Average Excess Blob Gas per Ethereum Block maintaining spikes of 70-80M. DeFi activity shifted, reflected in Uniswap V3 transactions on Arbitrum and liquidations across Aave and Compound.

Crypto Derivatives 5th November 2024

In the days leading up to the election we’ve observed a decline in both futures implied yields and perpetuals funding rates. With election-related uncertainty and recent spot price fluctuations, it’s clear that traders are now hesitant to pursue leveraged exposure in BTC and ETH as aggressively as they did last week, when the buildup of leverage was evident. This points to a reduced appetite for high-stakes directional bets, as BTC’s implied volatility remains elevated and continues to rise. Despite this, BTC’s volatility smiles keep signalling a bullish sentiment. In contrast, ETH’s implied volatility levels have slowed and moved sideways over recent days, with options’ skew reflecting a more bearish short-term sentiment. The spotlight therefore remains on BTC as the election cycle reaches its conclusion.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 30th

As the U.S. election approaches, short-tenor implied volatility has surged to multi-month highs, outperforming the far-end of the term structure and resulting in a significant inversion in the term structure. This indicates strong moves in positioning ahead of the election early next week, reminiscent of the same pattern observed prior to the ETF launch in January. ETH derivatives suggest that the second-largest cryptocurrency is likely to continue its long-standing trend of underperformance amid event risk, trailing BTC across all metrics and carrying a 10-point volatility premium over BTC.

DeFi Analytics 31st October 24

This week's edition of our Crypto DeFi Analytics, October saw stable Beacon Chain balances as withdrawals matched deposits, while Ethereum’s on-chain activity slowed alongside a range-bound spot. On October 28, Solana’s gas fee generation exceeded Ethereum's, collecting $2.54M to Ethereum's $2.07M. Blob gas usage on Ethereum peaked, with excess blob gas spiking past 50M. DeFi activity shifted, reflected in Uniswap V3 transactions on Arbitrum and liquidations across Aave and Compound.

Crypto Derivatives 29th October 2024

The bullish pre-election positioning that we saw building up earlier in October has continued with vigour over the last 3 days. Futures-implied yields, perpetual swap funding rates, and now implied volatility have risen to months-long highs, with short-tenor option expiries out-performing to invert the term structure of volatility in a similar manner to the shape we observed ahead of the ETF launch in January. ETH derivatives indicate an expectation that the second largest crypto-currency will continue its years-long trend of under-performance through the event risk, lagging BTC in all metrics and assigning a 10 point volatility premium over BTC, but echo the trend of increasing bullish sentiment that we see expressed across markets.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 23rd

With only two weeks left until the 2024 U.S. elections, ATM implied volatility levels have increased largely for 14-day tenor options, even as overall implied volatility levels have been trending downward, resulting in a very steep term structure. Sentiment remains bullish, as indicated by key metrics: open interest for both futures and call options is rising, and funding rates are positive for all monitored tokens, not just BTC and ETH. While the focus is primarily on majors BTC and ETH leading up to the election, traders are therefore anticipating a broader impact on the entire crypto ecosystem.

Crypto Senti-Meter V2: A Derivatives Sentiment Index

Block Scholes' Crypto Senti-Meter aggregates several measures metrics to measure the sentiment expressed by crypto-asset derivatives markets. Our index methodology leverages 4 years of advanced derivatives analytics, and is strongly correlated with movements in spot prices. In this second iteration of the index, we measure changes in momentum in derivatives market sentiment by evaluating the most recent value against its recent history.

Crypto Derivatives 22nd October 2024

The positive sentiment observed last week has consolidated, with bullishness reflected across key metrics for both majors. Perpetual funding rates remain positive, implied futures yields continue to show elevated levels and an inverted term structure, and the implied volatility smiles’ skew remains strongly tilted toward calls across tenors. The upcoming election is still impacting market dynamics greatly, with implied volatility for 14-day tenor options in both ETH and BTC rising, now approaching levels seen in longer-tenor options. At the same time, volatility at the far end of the term structure continues to trend sideways, only showing a slight decrease for BTC options. Notably, 7-day tenor options saw a spike in volatility last week, now having dropped sharply and sitting lower than last week.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 16th

Despite the recent spot price rally, the extreme dislocation between long- and short-dated implied volatility continues. Market participants are therefore positioning more around post-election expectations than to the recent bullish movements in spot prices, which have led to a rise in realized 7-day volatility that now matches implied volatility levels for 30-day-tenor options. Bullish reactions to spot price activity can be observed, especially in perpetual funding rates, which now trade positively across almost all tokens.

Crypto Derivatives 15th October 2024

We’ve seen evidence of increasingly positive sentiment in the derivatives markets over the last week. The futures implied yields term structure has inverted, with a dramatic rise at the front end that signals increased demand for near-term long exposure. The perp swap funding rate has remained positive for both BTC and ETH, reflecting bullish sentiment as traders are willing to pay to hold long positions. Additionally, volatility smile skews have grown towards calls, reflecting the increasing appetite for upside exposure that we see in futures. At the same time, while pre-election implied volatility has remained subdued, reflecting relatively stable spot price movements, this positive market sentiment suggests expectations for a continued rise in spot prices that we have not seen in some time.

Block Scholes x Derive How to Analyse the Volatility Smile to Understand Market Positioning

Structured products are financial instruments that use options to customize investment strategies and enhance yields based on market views. Derive's "Vaults" aim to generate higher yields but carry the risk of loss if the strategy underperforms. This report will examine the key strategies available on the Derive platform, break them down into familiar options strategies, and explain how to leverage the volatility smile to make informed decisions for maximizing yield based on market expectations.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 9th

The uncertainty associated with the upcoming U.S. election remains evident for the term structures of both BTC’s and ETH’s implied volatility. While implied volatility levels have been trending downward, realized volatility has been on the rise in early October, driven by recent short-lived fluctuations in spot prices. The downward trend in implied volatility levels contrasts with the buildup of positioning that we typically observe ahead of known event risks, as we saw ahead of the release of BTC Spot ETFs in January 2024.

Crypto Derivatives 8th October 2024

With less than 30 days left until the US Presidential election, the term structure of ATM implied volatility is clearly showing the same dislocation that we have observed for several months. Implied volatility levels for 30-day-tenor options have moved further up, now trading similar levels to longer-dated options. Despite the relative kink, outright volatility levels have dipped in the past week for both majors. Spot price downside volatility in early October has been reflected in derivatives sentiment, with volatility smiles skewing towards puts at pre-election expiries. While levels have since recovered for BTC OTM options, showing a preference overall for OTM calls, ETH volatility smiles still exhibit a premium assigned to puts at short tenors.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 2nd

The U.S. presidential election continues to present a volatility premium for expirations later than the Nov 5, 2024 date. While longer-tenor volatility smiles have presented a consistent skew toward OTM calls, short-tenor options have recently followed suit. Derivatives markets have expressed that the pullback in spot prices at the end of September hasn’t had a significantly bearish impact on sentiment.

Crypto Derivatives 1st October 2024

Despite a general slow down in spot price action for both majors, their derivatives markets have shown confirmation of what we first noticed last week: clear indications of a return to short-term positive sentiment and bullish trading activity. The recent skew towards OTM calls has consolidated, and we now observe a call-skew for smiles across all tenors. Perpetual swap funding rates have been strongly oscillating, but have registered high positive values throughout the week. At the same time, the front end of the term structure for ATM options’ volatility has increased substantially near to the 30-day tenor, as the US election moves closer along the term structure: this is further evidence that the date is influencing market positioning.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives September 25th

Following the Federal Reserve’s 50 bps rate cut on Sep 18, 2024, spot prices for both BTC and ETH have reacted positively. Derivatives markets are exhibiting various indications of positive sentiment: both futures and perpetual swap open interest have maintained high levels, and funding rates have traded positively overall for most tokens. BTC’s open interest for calls has slowly been on the rise, and the volatility smile has grown steadily toward calls for both BTC and ETH. While implied volatility levels for ATM short-dated options have oscillated downward, we see a growing positive outlook overall in the derivatives market for the short term.

Crypto Derivatives 24th September 2024

Following the cut in the Fed funds interest rate on September 18, 2024 we have seen an increase in spot prices for both major coins and an overall positive sentiment in the derivatives markets. The futures implied yields term structure was largely inverted over the last week, with yields showing high levels for the short term. However, the curve has now disinverted, having returned to similar levels as of last week. Perp swaps funding rates have fully recovered for both tokens, after a long period of stagnant negative rates. While ATM implied volatility levels have been on a slight decline for both BTC and ETH options, skews have been on the rise across all tenors, indicating a general increase in preference towards calls, adding to the evidence of a growing bullish sentiment in derivatives markets after the interest rate cut.

Bybit x Block Scholes: How to Sail Through the Rate Cuts Cycle and U.S. Election With Your Crypto Investments

Our report highlights the changing dynamics of Bitcoin in the investment landscape. Since the launch of BTC Spot ETFs in January 2024, Bitcoin has increasingly correlated with risk-on assets, particularly the S&P 500. This development suggests a growing interest from institutional investors, positioning BTC as a significant macro asset. Historically, cryptocurrencies have experienced volatility, but this newfound connection to traditional equities indicates that BTC is becoming a preferred option for investors seeking exposure to broader market trends. As Bitcoin's role evolves, it is increasingly viewed as a potential hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, similar to gold. This shift in perception underscores the necessity for investors to reassess their strategies, and to consider Bitcoin's potential as both a traditional asset and an emerging digital currency.

Crypto Derivatives 17th September 2024

The spot recovery we observed last week, for both tokens, has slowed down over the past days, with prices remaining within range-bound action. ETH’s futures yields have dropped for short tenors: while we can observe a flat term-structure for BTC’s yields similar to last week, ETH’s now results in a steep structure. Implied volatility levels have overall dropped similarly for both tokens, with ETH’s options remaining at a consistent volatility premium than BTC’s across all tenors. However, volatility levels for short tenors appear to be on the rise once again. Despite oscillation in implied volatility skew, sentiment has moved sideways, not expressing changes from last week across all tenors.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives September 11th

Derivatives markets continue to look forward to the US Election, pricing volatility for expiries later than the November 5 date at a significant premium to shorter-dated optionality. This is in contrast to the short term events that dominate the calendar in September, with the Federal Reserve set to join the growing global easing of interest rates after CPI figures in August confirmed that inflation is indeed falling in the US. Attention now turns to the labour market, which poses the stronger risk to the Fed’s dual mandate and may dictate the pace of their impending cutting cycle.

Crypto Derivatives 10th September 2024

After a 12-day period of spot decline since August 26, prices for both major tokens have finally started to recover over the past few days. This rise has positively affected short tenor futures yields, which have risen significantly in the past week, resulting in a flattened term structure. Implied volatility levels for BTC and ETH short-tenor options have been rising dramatically since the beginning of the month, while short-term skews have dropped and rebounded, now being at similar levels as of last week. As a result, ETH options are consistently skewed towards puts for short-tenor options, whereas short-term sentiment for BTC is neutral again and not expressing such a strong preference.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives September 4th

After the recent drop in BTC and ETH spot prices over the last week, we can observe an overall increase in implied volatility levels across the term structure for both major tokens. The front end of the structure has been particularly affected. For example, ETH 7-day option volatility has risen to the same levels as long-tenor options. Derivative markets remain skewed toward OTM puts for both majors for short term options, showing a significant strengthening in a short-term bearish outlook as spot fails to pick up. The negative sentiment for cryptocurrencies continues with open interest for BTC options showing higher levels for puts, and total open interest for perp swaps on the decline following the most recent sell-off.

Crypto Derivatives 3rd September 2024

Despite volatility levels having largely fluctuated for short-tenor ATM options, from the term structure we can once again observe that, as the US election approaches, volatility for options expiring after the election date is rising. We can additionally observe that skew for short-tenor options has been evolving positively in the past few days, with skew levels slightly rising similarly to what happened in mid-August, indicating a more neutral outlook despite the recent spot volatility. Concurrently, long-tenor options have consistently been pricing in higher volatility levels across the term structure, showing a stronger preference towards OTM calls.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives August 28th

Derivatives markets indicate a similar positioning after the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium to that which we saw last week. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s confirmation of the beginning of a rate cutting cycle in the Fed’s September meeting did little to change markets’ expectations on the pace of rate cuts, as it had already priced for 100 bps of cuts across the three remaining meetings of the year. Instead, it was the spot price sell-off on August 28 that moved markets -— with indications of a spate of perpetual swap liquidations in majors, and a small but noticeable spike in short-tenor volatility levels. The term structure of volatility holds a similar shape to last week’s, pricing in a volatility premium for expirations covering the upcoming U.S. presidential election on Nov 5, 2024.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives August 22nd

Another week of low volatility, sideways price action has none-the-less provided interetsing trade activity in derivatives. The additional bearishness afforded to ETH over BTC has continued, with a more negative funding rate over the past month, at-the-money volatility premium, and stronger skews towards OTM puts, especially at short-dated expiries. Despite this, the volatility markets of both majors indicate a growing premium priced in for the November 5, 2024 U.S. Presidential election date, with an increased bullishness for expiries after the event expressed by a stronger skew towards OTM calls.

Crypto Derivatives 20th August 24

Since recovering from the selloff in the first week of August, spot prices have largely moved sideways. This period of relative calmness has opened up a space for a divergence in sentiment between BTC and ETH, with metrics across derivatives markets indicating a stronger bearishness assigned to the latter in the short term. ETH futures-implied yields trade significantly lower, perpetual swap funding rates have moved intermittently negative, and options on ETH trade with a premium to BTC’s implied volatility across the term structure, with short-tenor OTM puts afforded an implied volatility premium over OTM calls.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives August 14th

The past week of spot price action has been relatively calm in comparison to the two that preceded it. Without an obvious catalyst to drive spot prices back to the highs lost in last week’s selloff, the recovery has floundered somewhat. Derivatives markets reflect the elevated uncertainty, with volatility levels trading at their July highs despite a resolution to the inverted shape of their term structure. Sentiment remains more bearish for ETH, which prices in a higher level of implied vol, lower funding rates, and stronger skew towards OTM puts.

Crypto Derivatives 13th August 24

Following the market selloff and the surge in volatility we have witnessed last week, derivatives market seem to have stabilized. Volatility has dropped for both BTC and ETH at the front end of the term structure, and funding rates returned positive for BTC while slowly rising for ETH. The period of market distress we have observed after the sudden risk-off event appears to have abated for now. However, skew has confirmed the trend we highlighted last week, as longer-dated volatility smiles remain skewed towards OTM calls and shorter tenors show a preference for OTM puts. While sentiment in the long-run still remains bullish, markets still show caution in the short term.

Bybit x Block Scholes: The Bitcoin Rally May Not Yet Be Over

In the 15 years since its inception, BTC’s price action has displayed an uncanny pattern of repetition. Looking at BTC’s historical price data, we can subdivide each of the three historical cycles of strikingly similar price action for BTC: recovery, boom and bust. The most recent bull run, which started in late 2022, is currently 624 days in. Compared to historical averages, this cycle could last another 350 days, though returns in each cycle have diminished over time. Lower disposable capital among retail traders (as indicated by the lower level of personal savings, following a period of high and persistent inflation) has thus far been expressed in the lack of the exuberance that we’ve come to expect in bull cycles. The changing intra-asset correlation structure between crypto and meme coins suggests that a different type of investor may be behind the most recent rally in prices: institutions. The renewed co-movement with equities coincides with the launch of BTC Spot ETFs in early January 2024, as well as the unlocking of a new pool of demand for crypto.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives August 6th

A week of bullish narratives for crypto at the BTC Nashville conference and the launch of ETH Spot ETFs has been followed by a starkly contrasting sell-off. Crypto has once again proved its position as a 24-hour macro indicator, as it reacted strongly to the weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll report on Aug 2, 2024. Alongside other risky assets, the news saw a sharp sell-off across crypto assets. However, it hasn’t yet seen the same wipeout of leveraged positioning or elevated volatility levels in the way that we’ve come to expect from double-digit crashes.

Crypto Derivatives 6th August 24

One of the largest global market selloffs since the COVID pandemic took its toll on crypto-spot prices, resulting in double-digit selloffs that were harder felt by ETH and alts than BTC. The selloff saw funding rates spike negative as accumualted long positions were likely liquidated, and the volatility term structure inverted as traders rushed to cover exposure to further downside moves in the short term. However, volatility levels did not spike above their year-to-date highs for either major, and longer-dated volatility smiles remained steadfastly skewed towards OTM calls. This indicates that while this was strong move in the short term, traders are not yet concerned about long-term performance.

SOFA Structured Products: EARN & SURGE

Using SOFA structured products to express market views offered several advantages over taking the same exposure on offchain or centralised alternatives. Trading options positions onchain removes counterparty risk as settlement is ensured by the verifiable logic of a smart contract and full collateralisation. Trading on SOFA offers exposure to the RCH token, which is airdropped to users on a periodic schedule. These tokens are awarded to users according to the proportion of volume that they trade in each recording period. Onchain positions in SOFA structured products are tokenised using leverage the ERC-1155 token standard. This allows for custom position parameters to be stored on the token itself, allowing for a more accurate valuation of the position so that it can more easily be composed and used as collateral in other trades.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives 19th July

The dramatic events of last weekend’s assassination attempt on Donald Trump have coincided with a strong recovery in crypto spot and, consequently, derivatives markets. Traders appear to express the “Trump Trade” just one week after spot prices crashed as the Republican candidate saw the probability of his re-election soar. Futures: Yields have recovered their pre–sell-off levels, and continue to express a healthy demand for leverage using derivatives contracts. We see similar levels in both BTC and ETH, despite ETH’s impending ETF launch, while open interest levels remain consistent with pre–sell-off levels. Perpetuals: While we don’t see a recovery in the number of open contracts to pre–sell-off levels, we do see a return to a moderately healthy positive funding rate paid from longs to shorts in all markets except TON. Options: Volatility at short tenors has rallied once again in response to short-term spot moves, first compressing the term structure and then steepening as the front end falls down once again. As it has done several times during short-term price volatility, short, sudden moves in spot price haven’t been enough to meaningfully lift long-run expectations of volatility.

Crypto Derivatives 23rd July 24

While volatility has generally been on the rise for both BTC and ETH, the term structure of volatility has changed dramatically especially at shorter tenors, now having inverted at the front end and continuing to trade at a premium for ETH options compared to BTC options. Volatility skew suggests that call options are preferred for both digital currencies. A general bullish trend is observed but more strongly for BTC, as reflected in the future implied yield chart and the perp swap funding rate, if not the skew of its volatility surface. Despite the recent approval of an ETH spot ETF, BTC is still holds a stronger bullish sentiment in derivatives space.

Crypto Derivatives 16th July 24

Spot prices have performed a significant recovery since bouncing off the lower bound of their recent range almost one week ago. As a result, delivered volatility has stayed at its highs and has materially increased implied volatility at short-tenor options and inverted the term structure. The recovery has inspired a return to double digit yields implied by both BTC and ETH futures markets, but only the former asset sees a similar sentiment expressed by its perpetual swap funding rates. ETH still has its months-long-held volatility premium over BTC of around 10 points, but its short-tenors did not push as close to the levels at the back end of the term structure leaving its term structure slightly steeper.

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives 12th July

Futures: Future-implied yields have recovered from their spike lower, but continue their downward trend over the month. Perps: Despite the recent bearish price action, we don’t see a widespread or persistently negative funding rate in perpetual swap markets except for TON. Open Interest in majors has fallen during the period of spot market volatility as traders close out positions Options: ETH volatility trades at a 10–15 point premium to BTC’s at all tenor points on the term structure, has recovered its volatility smile skew toward OTM calls much faster than BTC, and has seen incredible trade volumes in calls that far outweigh the activity in its puts. ETH derivatives markets continue to reflect different positioning when compared to BTC, which may be linked to hopes and expectations of the imminent launch of its first Spot ETFs in the U.S. However, ETH’s volatility premium above BTC is not a new phenomenon, and is also reflected in the increased realized volatility with which it has moved for much of the past month.

Crypto Derivatives 9th July 24

The latest venture of spot prices down to the bottom of their range has seen volatility levels at short tenors spike while traders rush to protect against further downside price action. While funding rates has remained steadily positive and short tenor future-implied yields have recovered some of their lost ground, volatility smiles remain skewed towards OTM puts and short tenor volatility has not fallen back from the levels of longer dated tenors. ETH retains its 10 vol point premium over BTC volatility at equivalent tenors and its term structure trades much flatter, continuing a trend that we have seen several times over the past month of range-bound price action.

Crypto Derivatives 2nd July 24

As spot prices trade at their lowest levels since early May, we see a stark divergence in the sentiment priced in by BTC and ETH options markets. ETH continues to trade with a 10-15 volatility premium across the term structure, and the most recent move lower in spot prices has seen BTC vol smile skew turned decidedly bearish at short tenors while ETH smiles skew neutral or towards calls at all tenors. While the fall in future-implied yields has recovered to last weeks levels, funding rates in the two majors have repeatedly charged short positions since the 9th June -- a phenomenon that we observe across perpetual-swap markets.

With few macro and crypto-specific events on the immediate horizon, volatility has largely continued to trade sideways in both majors over the past week as spot prices trade near range highs of $68.9K and $3.8K. The vol smile skew for BTC and ETH at short-dated tenors has increased from previous neutral levels, as implied vol for OTM puts has fallen. Over the past month, demand for leveraged long exposure in both majors has increased as futures yields have risen consistently, indicating that investors are willing to pay a premium above spot price in order to gain exposure to the underlying asset. Over a shorter lookback period of a few days, yields at short-dated tenors have fallen in both majors, although the long term trend remains intact.

This week's edition of our DeFi Analytics report.

Crypto Derivatives 20th Feb 24

Weekly crypto-derivatives market analytics, spanning futures, options, and perpetuals.

Maximal Extractable Value

The Ethereum network's pivot to a new consensus mechanism in September 2022 caused a dramatic shakeup to the reward system available to blockbuilders. Maximal extractable value, previously merely a popular side project for Proof of Work miners, has now become the most attractive reward stream for validators, and understanding its nuances is key to a profitable validator operation.

Ethereum's Gas Mechanics

The Ethereum network boasts the biggest Decentralised Finance ecosystem of any blockchain, an ecosystem supported by a network of smart contracts that allow for composable blocks of code to be executed by validators in the form of onchain transactions. The computation required by a transaction is performed by the validators (analogous to Bitcoin's miners) who create new blocks on the chain and is paid for in ETH by the sender.

THE MERGE

In mid-September 2022, Ethereum’s blockchain completed its long-awaited merge into a Proof of Stake chain, deprecating the Proof of Work system that has found consensus for the network since its inception in 2015. The Merge marks the most significant event in crypto to date, as the community has never seen such a drastic change to such a high-profile chain, and with such unpredictable consequences. It represents the culmination of many years of research and testing by both the Ethereum foundation and its community and is just one step on a long roadmap of planned upgrades.

Crypto Derivatives 13th Feb 24

Weekly crypto-derivatives market analytics, spanning futures, options, and perpetuals.

Ethereum Staking Deep Dive: Understanding Consensus Layer Rewards

Ethereum has emerged as a prominent and transformative force in the world of blockchain and decentralised finance, revolutionising the concept of digital currencies and paving the way for countless innovative applications. With its robust infrastructure and vibrant ecosystem, Ethereum continues to captivate the imagination of developers, entrepreneurs, and investors alike with an evolving ecosystem. As part of that evolution, the Ethereum Foundation has released a roadmap of planned upgrades, intended to enhance the network’s scalability, security, and sustainability. The transition from a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) model in the Merge was the first (and maybe most ambitious!) of these upgrades. Completed in mid-September 2022, the shift required a stunning feat of blockchain and community engineering to put an end to Ether mining and instead derive the blockchain’s security and reliability from staking. After over two and a half years since the genesis block of the Beacon Chain, and ten successful months of PoS-powered blocks post the Merge, Ether staking has grown from infancy to an established & maturing practice.

Ethereum Staking Deep Dive: Analysing Execution Layer Rewards & MEV

In this second part of our examination of Ethereum staking rewards we will perform a deep-dive analysis of execution layer rewards, describe and assess the contribution of Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) to a staker’s income, and review the drivers of MEV and its link to price volatility. We hope that you enjoy the full report, from which several key findings are outlined below.

Key Insights

Futures Implied Yield, 1-Month Tenor

ATM Implied Volatility, 1-Month Tenor

Futures

BTC Annualised Yields

ETH Annualised Yields

Perpetual Swap Funding Rates

BTC Funding Rates

ETH Funding Rates

BTC Options

BTC SABR ATM Implied Volatility

BTC 25-Delta Risk Reversal

ETH Options

ETH SABR ATM Implied Volatility

ETH 25-Delta Risk Reversal

Volatility Surface

BTC Implied Volatility Surface

ETH Implied Volatility Surface

Volatility Smiles

Historical SABR Volatility Smiles

Table of contents

Subscribe to our newsletter to receive weekly insights, straight in your inbox

Related articles

Bybit x Block Scholes: Takeaways from the U.S. Election and What to Look for Next

Crypto Derivatives 19th November 2024

DeFi Analytics 14th November 2024

Crypto Derivatives 12th November 2024

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives November 6th

DeFi Analytics 7th November 2024

Crypto Derivatives 5th November 2024

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 30th

DeFi Analytics 31st October 24

Crypto Derivatives 29th October 2024

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 23rd

Crypto Senti-Meter V2: A Derivatives Sentiment Index

Crypto Derivatives 22nd October 2024

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 16th

Crypto Derivatives 15th October 2024

Block Scholes x Derive How to Analyse the Volatility Smile to Understand Market Positioning

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 9th

Crypto Derivatives 8th October 2024

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 2nd

Crypto Derivatives 1st October 2024

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives September 25th

Crypto Derivatives 24th September 2024

Bybit x Block Scholes: How to Sail Through the Rate Cuts Cycle and U.S. Election With Your Crypto Investments

Crypto Derivatives 17th September 2024

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives September 11th

Crypto Derivatives 10th September 2024

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives September 4th

Crypto Derivatives 3rd September 2024

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives August 28th

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives August 22nd

Crypto Derivatives 20th August 24

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives August 14th

Crypto Derivatives 13th August 24

Bybit x Block Scholes: The Bitcoin Rally May Not Yet Be Over

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives August 6th

Crypto Derivatives 6th August 24

SOFA Structured Products: EARN & SURGE

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives 19th July

Crypto Derivatives 23rd July 24

Crypto Derivatives 16th July 24

Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives 12th July

Crypto Derivatives 9th July 24

Crypto Derivatives 2nd July 24

Crypto Derivatives 25th June 24

DeFi Analytics 19th June 24

Crypto Derivatives 18th June 24

DeFi Analytics 12th June 24

Crypto Derivatives 11th June 24

Crypto Derivatives 4th June 24

Crypto Senti-Meter: A Derivatives Sentiment Index

Crypto Derivatives 28th May 24

Ethereum’s New Gas Market Paradigm

Crypto Derivatives 21st May 24

DeFi Analytics 16th May 24

Crypto Derivatives 14th May 24

DeFi Analytics 8th May 24

Crypto Derivatives 7th May 24