“When the facts change, I change my mind, what do you do?”

Find our most recent reports in collaboration with Bybit below:

• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: What will drive crypto in Q3 2025?

• Bybit x Block Scholes July Volatility Review

• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: Altcoin season and the evolving role of Bitcoin

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Daily Updates:

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• Over the 12-month period from April 2024 to March 2025, the US government overestimated the number of jobs added by the US economy by a record 911,000, adding to a slew of signs that job growth is far less robust than initially reported.
• Prior to yesterday’s BLS report, jobs data showed that employers added nearly 1.8M jobs in the year through March, or 149,000 per month on average. The 911,000 revision now means average monthly job growth was actually half of the initially expected figure.

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• The revisions from the BLS are a preliminary estimate of its annual benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls. The final benchmark revision will be announced in February next year.
• According to the BLS, the revisions mean that the total employment figure in the US was reduced by 0.6% over the 12-month period. That’s a stark contrast to the fact that over the past 10 years, the annual benchmark revision has, on average, increased total employment by 0.2%.

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• White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said “Today, the BLS released the largest downward revision on record proving that President Trump was right: Biden’s economy was a disaster and the BLS is broken”. She added “This is exactly why we need new leadership to restore trust and confidence in the BLS’s data”, in reference to President Trump’s firing of the BLS Commissioner in August after a weak July jobs report.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Federal Reserve should recalibrate its policy stance following the data. On Fox Business yesterday he said “They should, let’s see if they will” and even cited a quote attributed to the economist John Maynard Keynes — “when the facts change, I change my mind, what do you do?”

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• While initially seeing a cautious drop down following the revisions, US equities ended yesterday at an all-time high, bolstered on the continued hopes that rate cuts from the Fed will curb the labour market slowdown.
• The SPX and NDX rose 0.29% and 0.33%, respectively.
• BTC saw a more outsized drop and a failure to recover unlike equities. It fell from $113K to $110K and is now trading above $112K — yet to return to the level it fell from before the BLS release.
• While ETH saw a similar decline in percentage terms yesterday, it is further away from recovering to the levels it fell from. Ether currently trades at $4,300 and is completely flat over the past 7 days (eking out a minor 0.15% gain).
• That rangebound move in spot across the two majors has resulted in a slow drift lower in ATM implied vol levels, while BTC and ETH volatility smiles continue to show the market’s preference for OTM puts.

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• US treasuries dropped yesterday, bringing a halt to a four-day winning streak. Yields rose by two to three basis points across maturities on the curve.

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• Yesterday the US Supreme Court said that it will decide whether the bulk of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are legal, agreeing to a faster-than-usual review.
• The Court will listen to arguments in the first week of November, an unusually aggressive schedule in order to resolve the case as soon as possible. For the time being, the tariffs will remain in place — despite a federal appeals court ruling that Trump overstepped the boundary when imposing them.

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• Another ruling that has gone against President Trump came yesterday after federal judge Jia Cobb temporarily blocked Trump from removing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The ruling means Cook can remain in her job and likely vote in the September FOMC meeting.

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• Paxos Labs unveiled an updated V2 plan to issue Hyperliquid’s USDH stablecoin, building on its earlier V1 proposal featuring integration with PayPal and Venmo. Both platforms would support USDH and list Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, with PayPal committing $20M in incentives to grow the ecosystem.
• Revenue from USDH will be reinvested into ecosystem expansion and Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund until the stablecoin reaches $1B in total value locked (TVL), while Paxos’ share remains capped at 5%.

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• Digital media advertising and technology service company, QMMM Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ: QMMM), has announced the creation of a new blockchain based decentralised data platform.
• The platform will offer AI-powered analytics to process large datasets, automated agents to answer user queries, DAO treasury management, enhanced metaverse experiences, smart contract vulnerability detection and code development support.
• Alongside platform development, QMMM also announced the creation of a $100M cryptocurrency treasury strategy with an initial focus on BTC, ETH and SOL accumulation.

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• Metaplanet has announced an international share offering expected to raise ¥204.1B (approximately $1.45B) through the issuance of 385M new shares priced at ¥533.39 each. Settlement is set for September 16 with delivery on September 17.
• The company will allocate ¥183.7B in net proceeds to Bitcoin purchases between September and October 2025, and ¥20.4B to other business expenses. The issuance increases Metaplanet’s outstanding shares from roughly 756M to 1.14B.

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This Week’s Calendar:

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Charts of the Day:

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