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Last Updated:  
September 5, 2025
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2 min read

More Labour Market Weakness

Further signs of weakness in the US labour market were provided through two separate macro data releases yesterday. ADP data showed private payrolls rose by 54,000 in August, below expectations, while applications for unemployment benefits in the US rose to their highest since June. The S&P 500 rallied to an all-time high, while BTC posed a small recovery past $112K later in the day. Despite the slight spot price recovery, volatility smiles remain put-skewed. Perp funding rates for ETH sharply fell below -0.01%, though remain flat at 0% for BTC perps. In China, financial regulators are considering a number of cooling measures for the stock market, which has rallied significantly from its April lows, as policymakers become increasingly concerned over a 2015-esque boom and bust.

Crypto
Derivatives
DeFi
Macro

Find our most recent reports in collaboration with Bybit below:

Daily Updates:

  • The S&P 500 ended yesterday’s trading session at a new all-time high, rallying 0.83%, as markets received more data in support of the view that the US labour market is slowing down. That’s pushed up market-implied odds of a rate cut in two week’s time to 99.4%. The 10-year treasury yield fell 5bps to 4.16%, while the 2-year yield traded at 3.59%, its lowest level in exactly a year. 
  • In our most recent report with Bybit we wrote that “Following Jackson Hole, we’ve seen a drop in volatility levels in US equity markets, bond markets and BTC’s volatility”. We noted that was interesting given that there was “no lack of market narratives that could have driven volatility higher”. 
  • That move in volatility may be here now: According to Bloomberg, one-month implied volatility for US Treasuries “jumped 12.12 points over the last three days”, which is the highest on a 30-day rolling basis since the period after Trump’s Liberation Day announcement.
  • According to ADP Research, private-sector payrolls rose by 54,000 in August, undershooting Bloomberg economists' median expectation of a 68,000 increase and far below the 106,000 jobs clocked in the month before. That comes after the JOLTS report earlier this week which showed that for the first time since April 2021, job openings were below the number of unemployed workers. Both pieces of data point to a weaker demand for workers.
  • Nela Richardson, Chief economist at ADP, said in a statement that “The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty”.
  • Adding further evidence to the cooling labour market narrative was unemployment claims data. Applications for US unemployment benefits rose to their highest since June — initial jobless claims increased to 237,000 in the week ending 30 Aug, 2025, up 8,000 from the prior week and above estimates of 230,000 applications.
  • Bitcoin staged a recovery in yesterday’s trading session too — since falling to $109K, at 4PM UK time, it has been on an upward trend and is now trading close to $113K. 
  • Altcoins such as Ether and SOL joined the rally a few hours later. ETH, SOL, XRP all moved higher later yesterday evening or during Asian trading hours, however in general altcoins are all trading higher ahead of the nonfarm payrolls employment report due later today. ETH currently trades at $4,400. 
  • Implied volatility levels for short-to-mid dated BTC and ETH options have traded sideways over the past 24 hours around 36% and 67% respectively. Despite the slight jump in spot price, volatility smiles remain put-skewed. For BTC, that skew towards put options is visible across the term structure, while for ETH, 180-day options assign a vol premium to OTM calls. 
  • Additionally, perpetual swap funding rates for ETH sharply turned negative yesterday, falling from neutral levels to below -0.01%, though remain flat at 0% for BTC perps. 
  • New York Federal Reserve President said yesterday that the current “modestly restrictive” setting of monetary policy was "appropriate" given the state of the US economy. However, looking forward "if progress on our dual-mandate goals continues as in my baseline forecast, I anticipate it will become appropriate to move interest rates toward a more neutral stance over time". Unlike other Fed members however, Williams fell short of giving an exact estimate on when he believes the Fed should begin lowering its interest rate target.
  • The Department of Justice in the US has opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, who President Trump attempted to oust from the Fed last month over potential mortgage fraud allegations. 
  • Cook’s lawyer said that “The administration is scrambling to invent new justifications for its over-reach” and that “This justice department, perhaps the most politicised in American history, will do whatever President Trump demands”.
  • Financial regulators in China are considering a number of cooling measures for the stock market as they grow concerned about the speed of its rally since the start of August. Parallels have been made to the boom and bust in Chinese equity markets back in 2015, and policymakers are seeking to prevent a repeat that might see heavy losses inflicted on retail investors. According to CNBC, “China’s retail investors drive 90% of daily trading”. 
  • China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing pledged last month to consolidate the “positive momentum” of the market, while promoting “long-term, value, and rational investing.”
  • China’s stock market has staged a large comeback since April — the Shanghai Composite Index is at a decade high (and up 17% YTD), while the CSI 300 Index has surged more than 20% from the year-to-date low. Both indices fell 2% yesterday amid the news of cooling measures. 
  • That rally has been partly driven by a fuel in leverage trading — according to Bloomberg, the outstanding amount of margin trades, which involves investors borrowing money to buy local stocks in the onshore market, has also surged to a record high. 
  • According to Bloomberg, Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin-focused company, Strategy, is now seen as a potential contender for entry into the S&P 500 since posting a $14B unrealized gain last quarter, meeting the index’s profitability requirements and also meeting additional criteria such as liquidity requirements.
  • S&P 500 inclusion would force passive funds to buy nearly 50M shares, worth about $16B, effectively turning traditional institutions into indirect holders of Bitcoin.
  • Etherscan, which provides an overview of key Ethereum defi and block metrics has now expanded creating a new entity, Seiscan, for the SEI Network.
  • This will allow users to view transactions, monitor defi metrics and provide API access to the SEI ecosystem overview.
  • TradFi exchange Nasdaq is reportedly stepping up oversight of U.S.-listed firms that raise money to buy cryptocurrencies. 
  • This will add rules including mandatory shareholder votes on certain transactions, greater disclosure requirements, and the potential of suspension or delisting of companies that do not comply.

This Week's Calendar:

Charts of the Day:

Figure 1. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 2. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 3. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 4. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
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Thahbib Rahman
Research Analyst
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Find our most recent reports in collaboration with Bybit below:

Daily Updates:

  • The S&P 500 ended yesterday’s trading session at a new all-time high, rallying 0.83%, as markets received more data in support of the view that the US labour market is slowing down. That’s pushed up market-implied odds of a rate cut in two week’s time to 99.4%. The 10-year treasury yield fell 5bps to 4.16%, while the 2-year yield traded at 3.59%, its lowest level in exactly a year. 
  • In our most recent report with Bybit we wrote that “Following Jackson Hole, we’ve seen a drop in volatility levels in US equity markets, bond markets and BTC’s volatility”. We noted that was interesting given that there was “no lack of market narratives that could have driven volatility higher”. 
  • That move in volatility may be here now: According to Bloomberg, one-month implied volatility for US Treasuries “jumped 12.12 points over the last three days”, which is the highest on a 30-day rolling basis since the period after Trump’s Liberation Day announcement.
  • According to ADP Research, private-sector payrolls rose by 54,000 in August, undershooting Bloomberg economists' median expectation of a 68,000 increase and far below the 106,000 jobs clocked in the month before. That comes after the JOLTS report earlier this week which showed that for the first time since April 2021, job openings were below the number of unemployed workers. Both pieces of data point to a weaker demand for workers.
  • Nela Richardson, Chief economist at ADP, said in a statement that “The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty”.
  • Adding further evidence to the cooling labour market narrative was unemployment claims data. Applications for US unemployment benefits rose to their highest since June — initial jobless claims increased to 237,000 in the week ending 30 Aug, 2025, up 8,000 from the prior week and above estimates of 230,000 applications.
  • Bitcoin staged a recovery in yesterday’s trading session too — since falling to $109K, at 4PM UK time, it has been on an upward trend and is now trading close to $113K. 
  • Altcoins such as Ether and SOL joined the rally a few hours later. ETH, SOL, XRP all moved higher later yesterday evening or during Asian trading hours, however in general altcoins are all trading higher ahead of the nonfarm payrolls employment report due later today. ETH currently trades at $4,400. 
  • Implied volatility levels for short-to-mid dated BTC and ETH options have traded sideways over the past 24 hours around 36% and 67% respectively. Despite the slight jump in spot price, volatility smiles remain put-skewed. For BTC, that skew towards put options is visible across the term structure, while for ETH, 180-day options assign a vol premium to OTM calls. 
  • Additionally, perpetual swap funding rates for ETH sharply turned negative yesterday, falling from neutral levels to below -0.01%, though remain flat at 0% for BTC perps. 
  • New York Federal Reserve President said yesterday that the current “modestly restrictive” setting of monetary policy was "appropriate" given the state of the US economy. However, looking forward "if progress on our dual-mandate goals continues as in my baseline forecast, I anticipate it will become appropriate to move interest rates toward a more neutral stance over time". Unlike other Fed members however, Williams fell short of giving an exact estimate on when he believes the Fed should begin lowering its interest rate target.
  • The Department of Justice in the US has opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, who President Trump attempted to oust from the Fed last month over potential mortgage fraud allegations. 
  • Cook’s lawyer said that “The administration is scrambling to invent new justifications for its over-reach” and that “This justice department, perhaps the most politicised in American history, will do whatever President Trump demands”.
  • Financial regulators in China are considering a number of cooling measures for the stock market as they grow concerned about the speed of its rally since the start of August. Parallels have been made to the boom and bust in Chinese equity markets back in 2015, and policymakers are seeking to prevent a repeat that might see heavy losses inflicted on retail investors. According to CNBC, “China’s retail investors drive 90% of daily trading”. 
  • China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing pledged last month to consolidate the “positive momentum” of the market, while promoting “long-term, value, and rational investing.”
  • China’s stock market has staged a large comeback since April — the Shanghai Composite Index is at a decade high (and up 17% YTD), while the CSI 300 Index has surged more than 20% from the year-to-date low. Both indices fell 2% yesterday amid the news of cooling measures. 
  • That rally has been partly driven by a fuel in leverage trading — according to Bloomberg, the outstanding amount of margin trades, which involves investors borrowing money to buy local stocks in the onshore market, has also surged to a record high. 
  • According to Bloomberg, Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin-focused company, Strategy, is now seen as a potential contender for entry into the S&P 500 since posting a $14B unrealized gain last quarter, meeting the index’s profitability requirements and also meeting additional criteria such as liquidity requirements.
  • S&P 500 inclusion would force passive funds to buy nearly 50M shares, worth about $16B, effectively turning traditional institutions into indirect holders of Bitcoin.
  • Etherscan, which provides an overview of key Ethereum defi and block metrics has now expanded creating a new entity, Seiscan, for the SEI Network.
  • This will allow users to view transactions, monitor defi metrics and provide API access to the SEI ecosystem overview.
  • TradFi exchange Nasdaq is reportedly stepping up oversight of U.S.-listed firms that raise money to buy cryptocurrencies. 
  • This will add rules including mandatory shareholder votes on certain transactions, greater disclosure requirements, and the potential of suspension or delisting of companies that do not comply.
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Find our most recent reports in collaboration with Bybit below:

Daily Updates:

  • The S&P 500 ended yesterday’s trading session at a new all-time high, rallying 0.83%, as markets received more data in support of the view that the US labour market is slowing down. That’s pushed up market-implied odds of a rate cut in two week’s time to 99.4%. The 10-year treasury yield fell 5bps to 4.16%, while the 2-year yield traded at 3.59%, its lowest level in exactly a year. 
  • In our most recent report with Bybit we wrote that “Following Jackson Hole, we’ve seen a drop in volatility levels in US equity markets, bond markets and BTC’s volatility”. We noted that was interesting given that there was “no lack of market narratives that could have driven volatility higher”. 
  • That move in volatility may be here now: According to Bloomberg, one-month implied volatility for US Treasuries “jumped 12.12 points over the last three days”, which is the highest on a 30-day rolling basis since the period after Trump’s Liberation Day announcement.
  • According to ADP Research, private-sector payrolls rose by 54,000 in August, undershooting Bloomberg economists' median expectation of a 68,000 increase and far below the 106,000 jobs clocked in the month before. That comes after the JOLTS report earlier this week which showed that for the first time since April 2021, job openings were below the number of unemployed workers. Both pieces of data point to a weaker demand for workers.
  • Nela Richardson, Chief economist at ADP, said in a statement that “The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty”.
  • Adding further evidence to the cooling labour market narrative was unemployment claims data. Applications for US unemployment benefits rose to their highest since June — initial jobless claims increased to 237,000 in the week ending 30 Aug, 2025, up 8,000 from the prior week and above estimates of 230,000 applications.
  • Bitcoin staged a recovery in yesterday’s trading session too — since falling to $109K, at 4PM UK time, it has been on an upward trend and is now trading close to $113K. 
  • Altcoins such as Ether and SOL joined the rally a few hours later. ETH, SOL, XRP all moved higher later yesterday evening or during Asian trading hours, however in general altcoins are all trading higher ahead of the nonfarm payrolls employment report due later today. ETH currently trades at $4,400. 
  • Implied volatility levels for short-to-mid dated BTC and ETH options have traded sideways over the past 24 hours around 36% and 67% respectively. Despite the slight jump in spot price, volatility smiles remain put-skewed. For BTC, that skew towards put options is visible across the term structure, while for ETH, 180-day options assign a vol premium to OTM calls. 
  • Additionally, perpetual swap funding rates for ETH sharply turned negative yesterday, falling from neutral levels to below -0.01%, though remain flat at 0% for BTC perps. 
  • New York Federal Reserve President said yesterday that the current “modestly restrictive” setting of monetary policy was "appropriate" given the state of the US economy. However, looking forward "if progress on our dual-mandate goals continues as in my baseline forecast, I anticipate it will become appropriate to move interest rates toward a more neutral stance over time". Unlike other Fed members however, Williams fell short of giving an exact estimate on when he believes the Fed should begin lowering its interest rate target.
  • The Department of Justice in the US has opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, who President Trump attempted to oust from the Fed last month over potential mortgage fraud allegations. 
  • Cook’s lawyer said that “The administration is scrambling to invent new justifications for its over-reach” and that “This justice department, perhaps the most politicised in American history, will do whatever President Trump demands”.
  • Financial regulators in China are considering a number of cooling measures for the stock market as they grow concerned about the speed of its rally since the start of August. Parallels have been made to the boom and bust in Chinese equity markets back in 2015, and policymakers are seeking to prevent a repeat that might see heavy losses inflicted on retail investors. According to CNBC, “China’s retail investors drive 90% of daily trading”. 
  • China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing pledged last month to consolidate the “positive momentum” of the market, while promoting “long-term, value, and rational investing.”
  • China’s stock market has staged a large comeback since April — the Shanghai Composite Index is at a decade high (and up 17% YTD), while the CSI 300 Index has surged more than 20% from the year-to-date low. Both indices fell 2% yesterday amid the news of cooling measures. 
  • That rally has been partly driven by a fuel in leverage trading — according to Bloomberg, the outstanding amount of margin trades, which involves investors borrowing money to buy local stocks in the onshore market, has also surged to a record high. 
  • According to Bloomberg, Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin-focused company, Strategy, is now seen as a potential contender for entry into the S&P 500 since posting a $14B unrealized gain last quarter, meeting the index’s profitability requirements and also meeting additional criteria such as liquidity requirements.
  • S&P 500 inclusion would force passive funds to buy nearly 50M shares, worth about $16B, effectively turning traditional institutions into indirect holders of Bitcoin.
  • Etherscan, which provides an overview of key Ethereum defi and block metrics has now expanded creating a new entity, Seiscan, for the SEI Network.
  • This will allow users to view transactions, monitor defi metrics and provide API access to the SEI ecosystem overview.
  • TradFi exchange Nasdaq is reportedly stepping up oversight of U.S.-listed firms that raise money to buy cryptocurrencies. 
  • This will add rules including mandatory shareholder votes on certain transactions, greater disclosure requirements, and the potential of suspension or delisting of companies that do not comply.

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