“I would say yes”

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: Rise of Perp DEXs — and how to catch the opportunity

• How did options markets react to the crypto selloff?

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• Metaplanet Is Selling Vol, Who Is Next?

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• Bybit x Block Scholes August Volatility Review

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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves:

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Daily Updates:

• Sentiment in risk-on assets and cryptocurrencies has been propelled by two major macro developments. Over the weekend, US and Chinese trade negotiators reached a preliminary consensus and agreed on a “very positive framework” over a number of trade issues, including bilateral tariffs, fentanyl, and export controls on rare earth minerals. 
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the discussions were “constructive, far-reaching and in-depth”. Chinese Trade Representative Li Chenggang described the talks as “intense”, with both sides now reporting the outcomes back to their respective leaders ahead of a Thursday sit-down between President Trump and President Xi.
• When asked if the two nations may extend their detente on a prospective higher tariff rate which is due to expire on Nov 10, Bessent said “I would say yes” but that the decision ultimately sits with President Trump. 

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• Positive developments on trade extended beyond just China however. President Trump signed a ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand and announced a slew of trade pacts with Southeast Asian countries. 
• Cambodia will drop its tariffs on US agricultural and industrial imports and the US will in turn exempt a number of products from the 19% levy on Cambodian goods. Thailand will eliminate tariffs on 99% of US goods in exchange for the White House alleviating tariffs on a range of Thailand goods. Trump also announced a trade deal with Malaysia and Vietnam too. 

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• Additionally, markets were bolstered on Friday by a cooler-than-expected September inflation report, which had been delayed by the ongoing US government shutdown. 
• Headline and core CPI inflation came in 1/10th of a percentage point lower than expected both MoM and YoY. 
• On an annual basis, core CPI rose 3.0%, a slowdown from August’s 3.1% and on the month, core CPI in September increased 0.2% against expectations of a flat 0.3% reading. 
• The report also showed the smallest one-month increase since January 2021 in a key item in the shelter component of the CPI, known as the owners’ equivalent rent. The OER rose 0.1% in September, and makes up 26% of the overall CPI. That provided some evidence of a normalisation in shelter costs, which have been a consistently sticky part of the inflation basket.  
• While the main numbers all showed a slower pace of inflation, the report did show some signs of inflation in items more exposed to tariffs. Audio and video equipment prices rose at their fastest pace since 2021, while apparel prices climbed 0.7% in September, the fastest pace in a year. 
• The White House said on Friday that the US shutdown would mean “there will likely NOT be an inflation release next month for the first time in history”, referring to the October report. 

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• Supported by both macro developments, the crypto market has rebounded significantly, in line with a broader rally in risk assets. BTC broke out beyond $115K, the upper bound of its recent trading range that we had commented on last week, and ETH reached $4,200 earlier in the day, up 4% over the past 24 hours. 
• That comes after a record high in both the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 last Friday. 
• Short-term optionality for BTC now also expresses a small preference for upside exposure — the 25-delta put-call skew ratio has a slightly bullish bias, with call options demanding a small 1.5 vol point premium over puts. 
• Volatility smile skew for short-tenor ETH options have also steepened to the upside since Friday. 7-day put-call skew traded at -7% on Oct 24 and is now trading close to neutral levels. 

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• Japan’s first yen-pegged stablecoin, JPY Coin has launched on Ethereum, Avalanche, and Polygon. The token is fully backed by bank deposits and Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to maintain a 1:1 peg with the yen. 
• In August, JPYC Inc. became the first legally approved issuer of a yen-denominated stablecoin after registering as a fund transfer service provider with Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA).

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• Sharplink Gaming continues its ETH accumulation with a purchase of 19,271 ETH (around $80.4M) today, bringing its total holdings to 859,295 ETH (around $3.58B). This positions the company as the second-largest publicly disclosed ETH corporate treasury, after BitMine, which holds roughly 3.24M ETH (around $13.5B).

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This Week’s Calendar:

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Charts of the Day:

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