Healthy Pullback?
After hitting a record high of $123K, signs of profit taking has seen BTC fall 5% in the past 24 hours to $116.8K, while ETH, SOL, and XRP are all down by 2–4%. Despite the pullback, funding rates for BTC and ETH remain firmly positive. BTC Spot ETFs saw another strong inflow day of $297.4M, extending a streak that began on July 2. The implied volatility on 7-day BTC options rose slightly to 39%, while a more than 9% drop in short-tenor ETH volatility has brought the ETH/BTC IV ratio down to 1.6. U.S. banking regulators including the Fed issued new guidance for banks looking to offer or already offering crypto custody services while President Trump has warned of 100% tariffs on Russian goods.

Daily Updates:
- After a record-breaking rally that took BTC past $123,000, the past 24 hours has shown signs of profit taking at a new ATH, with BTC dropping 5% to $116.8K. Other large-cap altcoins including ETH, SOL and XRP are all down by 2-4% respectively. Despite that pullback in spot prices, both BTC and ETH funding rates remain positive and firmly above neutral levels, suggesting traders are still willing to pay for exposure to upward moves in both tokens.
- BTC Spot ETFs had another strong day of inflows yesterday, extending a run of positive inflows that began on July 2, 2025. Last Thursday and Friday saw spot ETFs buy over $1B worth of bitcoins. While yesterday’s $297.4M was smaller relative to those recent flows, it was over twice the size of the average $140M net flow since the launch of the Spot ETFs in January 2024.
- ETH Spot ETFs have also maintained a consecutive inflow streak since July 2, and in fact the gap between daily BTC and ETH ETF inflows narrowed once more yesterday. Since launch, BTC ETFs have generally seen far larger inflows than ETH ETFs – however more recently, we have seen the spread in inflows narrow. On July 9 for example, BTC ETFs had inflows only $4.4M greater than ETH ETFs.
- BTC’s term structure of volatility has increased slightly relative to yesterday, driven by higher volatility at the front-end of the slope. 7-day BTC options trade with a volatility premium of 39.17%, still close to the highest levels they have traded at so far this month.
- The ratio of ETH at-the-money 7-day IV relative to BTC ATM 7-day IV has fallen given the outsized drop in ETH options volatility and the slight increase in BTC options at the same tenor. Currently, the ratio is closer to 1.6 – that is ETH options are trading with a 1.6x implied volatility premium to BTC options – a far smaller than levels we highlighted in our May and June volatility reports.
- US regulators including the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued a joint statement yesterday aiming to give fresh guidelines to banking organisations “that provide or are considering providing safekeeping for crypto-assets”.
- The statement said “A banking organization that is contemplating providing safekeeping for crypto-assets should consider the evolving nature of the crypto-asset market, including the technology underlying the crypto-assets, and implement a risk governance framework that appropriately adapts to relevant risks.”
- President Trump has promised to impose harsh penalties on Russia if it does not end its hostilities with Ukraine. Speaking at the White House, Trump said “We’re going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in 50 days, tariffs at about 100%”. Trump also suggested those tariffs could come in the form of what he referred to as “secondary tariffs” – tariffs on countries that trade with Russia. This is something he has threatened to do earlier in his second presidency when he considered secondary tariffs on countries that buy oil from Venezuela or on nations trading with Iran.
- Other developments on the tariff front include the European Union finalising a second list of goods from the US it plans to tariff. These goods include Boeing aircrafts, automobiles, chemicals and plastics, wines and certain agricultural products – in sum, the tariffs will target $84B worth of US-made goods. EU bloc countries will need to give their approval before the list is formally adopted.
- The plans for countermeasures from the EU come after President Trump said over the weekend that he would raise tariffs on European goods to 30%, to which the bloc’s trade chief Maros Sefcovic called “effectively prohibitive” to transatlantic trade.
- China’s GDP came in at 5.2% in Q2, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1, but above the 5.1% forecast.
- The economy showed resilience amid U.S. tariff headwinds, supported by policy measures and a boost in factory shipments during the current U.S. - China trade truce.
- UK-based global bank Standard Chartered announced today the launch of spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum through its UK branch—exclusively for institutional clients.
- StanChart states that it became the first global systemically important bank to offer regulated, deliverable spot crypto trading.
- Clients — including corporates, investors, and asset managers — can now trade through platforms they already use for FX, with crypto forwards set to follow.
- Bit Digital (Nasdaq: BTBT) will issue 22 million ordinary shares at $3.06 per share through a registered direct offering aimed at institutional investors.
- The sale is expected to raise approximately $67.3M which will be used to purchase further Ether tokens and expand their current treasury which stands at over 100,600 ETH (approximately $300M).
This Week’s Calendar:


Charts of the Day:

Figure 1. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 2. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 3. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 4. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes