Back to Research
Last Updated:  
October 28, 2025
4 min read

Gold Falls Below $4,000

Risk sentiment strengthened across global and crypto markets following progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations and multiple new U.S. trade pacts with Southeast Asian nations. A softer U.S. inflation print added fuel to the rally, with both headline and core CPI undershooting expectations and showing signs of easing shelter costs. BTC broke through $115K and ETH climbed to $4,200, tracking record highs in the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500. Option markets reflected renewed optimism — BTC’s short-term skew flipped modestly bullish while ETH’s 7-day put-call skew normalized from prior bearish levels. Meanwhile, Japan debuted its first yen-pegged stablecoin, JPY Coin, and Sharplink Gaming expanded its ETH holdings to $3.58B, solidifying its position as the second-largest public ETH treasury.

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

 

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves:

Daily Updates:

  • Global equities extended their risk-on sentiment yesterday with US stocks, the Nikkei 225 and the World MSCI Index all at all-time highs. 
  • Crypto assets, on the other hand, pared back some of their gains through the day. 
  • After touching $116K, BTC was unable to hold that level for long and now trades slightly above $114K, down -1.5% over the past 24 hours. ETH equally struggled to maintain the $4,200 mark and has fallen lower towards $4,100. 
  • Smiles across the term structure of volatility have a small bias towards put options for BTC, contrasting the modest skew towards calls for short-tenor options yesterday. 

  • The move to fresh highs in US stocks was boosted by an easing in trade tensions. Speaking to reporters yesterday, President Trump said “I really feel good” about a trade deal with China. 
  • Trade negotiators for the US and China have come to terms on a number of different points during their weekend negotiations.
  • Scott Bessent told CBS News that Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods which came after new rare earth curbs from China “is effectively off the table”. He also expects China to make “substantial” soybean purchases. Bessent added that he believes China will delay the rare-earth restrictions it announced “for a year while they reexamine it”, though US export controls on Chinese goods would remain.  
  • Trade negotiator Li Chenggang also indicated that the US is likely to reduce or entirely remove a 20% tariff rate it added on Chinese goods over the flow of fentanyl into the US. 

  • That tilt towards risk has put further pressure on haven assets, where demand appears to have hit a small, temporary roadblock. After a blistering run over the past few months, precious metals pulled back once more. That resulted in gold falling below the $4,000 mark. 
  • According to the World Gold Council, the recent rally in gold may have impacted the level of buying from central banks recently. However, the pullback in spot price may encourage central banks to increase their exposure once more — indeed the central bank of South Korea is currently weighing plans to add to its gold reserves for the first time since 2013. 
  • According to Heung-Soon Jung, director of the Reserve Investment Division at the bank’s Reserve Management Group, “The Bank of Korea plans to consider additional gold purchases from a medium- to long-term perspective”. 
  • Short-term US Treasuries also fell, led by the front end of the curve. The yield on two-year treasury notes rose two basis points to 3.50%, though further out along the curve, the 30-year yield fell three basis points.

  • Scott Bessent confirmed the five candidates in line to succeed Jerome Powell, the current chair of the Federal Reserve. On board Air Force One, Bessent named the candidates as current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and BlackRock Inc. executive Rick Rieder. 
  • President Trump is expected to make a decision by the end of the year. 

  • Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet Inc. has announced a ¥75B (around $50M) share buyback program backed by a Bitcoin-collateralised credit facility that can also be used for additional Bitcoin purchases or act as bridge financing for a preferred share issuance.
  • The program allows the repurchase of up to 150M common shares, 13.13% of total issued shares, via the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This comes after Metaplanet’s market-based net asset value fell below 1.

  • Strategy continues its BTC purchasing, adding 390 BTC for approximately $43.4M, averaging around $111,053 per Bitcoin.
  • As of October 26, 2025, the company holds 640,808 BTC, acquired for about $47.44B at an average cost of around $74,032 per Bitcoin.

  • NYSE Arca has officially approved the listing of the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, under the ticker BSOL, with trading set to begin on October 28, 2025,
  • BSOL is the first U.S. 100% SOL exchange-traded product (ETP) and one of the first staking crypto ETPs. Bitwise plans to stake all of the fund’s SOL holdings through Bitwise Onchain Solutions, powered by Helius, targeting an average staking reward of over 7%.

This Week's Calendar:

Charts of the Day:

Figure 1. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 2. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 3. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 4. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Share this post
Copy URL
www.blockscholes.com/premium-research/gold-falls-below-4-000

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

 

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves:

Daily Updates:

  • Global equities extended their risk-on sentiment yesterday with US stocks, the Nikkei 225 and the World MSCI Index all at all-time highs. 
  • Crypto assets, on the other hand, pared back some of their gains through the day. 
  • After touching $116K, BTC was unable to hold that level for long and now trades slightly above $114K, down -1.5% over the past 24 hours. ETH equally struggled to maintain the $4,200 mark and has fallen lower towards $4,100. 
  • Smiles across the term structure of volatility have a small bias towards put options for BTC, contrasting the modest skew towards calls for short-tenor options yesterday. 

  • The move to fresh highs in US stocks was boosted by an easing in trade tensions. Speaking to reporters yesterday, President Trump said “I really feel good” about a trade deal with China. 
  • Trade negotiators for the US and China have come to terms on a number of different points during their weekend negotiations.
  • Scott Bessent told CBS News that Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods which came after new rare earth curbs from China “is effectively off the table”. He also expects China to make “substantial” soybean purchases. Bessent added that he believes China will delay the rare-earth restrictions it announced “for a year while they reexamine it”, though US export controls on Chinese goods would remain.  
  • Trade negotiator Li Chenggang also indicated that the US is likely to reduce or entirely remove a 20% tariff rate it added on Chinese goods over the flow of fentanyl into the US. 

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

 

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves:

Daily Updates:

  • Global equities extended their risk-on sentiment yesterday with US stocks, the Nikkei 225 and the World MSCI Index all at all-time highs. 
  • Crypto assets, on the other hand, pared back some of their gains through the day. 
  • After touching $116K, BTC was unable to hold that level for long and now trades slightly above $114K, down -1.5% over the past 24 hours. ETH equally struggled to maintain the $4,200 mark and has fallen lower towards $4,100. 
  • Smiles across the term structure of volatility have a small bias towards put options for BTC, contrasting the modest skew towards calls for short-tenor options yesterday. 

  • The move to fresh highs in US stocks was boosted by an easing in trade tensions. Speaking to reporters yesterday, President Trump said “I really feel good” about a trade deal with China. 
  • Trade negotiators for the US and China have come to terms on a number of different points during their weekend negotiations.
  • Scott Bessent told CBS News that Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods which came after new rare earth curbs from China “is effectively off the table”. He also expects China to make “substantial” soybean purchases. Bessent added that he believes China will delay the rare-earth restrictions it announced “for a year while they reexamine it”, though US export controls on Chinese goods would remain.  
  • Trade negotiator Li Chenggang also indicated that the US is likely to reduce or entirely remove a 20% tariff rate it added on Chinese goods over the flow of fentanyl into the US.