From D.O.G.E. to DOGE

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• Premia x Block Scholes: Introducing Kyan

• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: Rise of Perp DEXs — and how to catch the opportunity

• How did options markets react to the crypto selloff?

• Metaplanet Is Selling Vol, Who Is Next?

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

• BTC has recovered from Friday’s drop to around $81,000 and is trading near $86,000 as of at the moment of writing.
• The broader market has also stabilised, with ETH at $2,800, XRP at $2.05 and Solana near $129.
• The drop on Friday came as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs logged a fourth consecutive week of net outflows, with $1.22B withdrawn in the week to 21 November, taking cumulative outflows over the past month to $4.34B. 

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• Earlier in the week, CME FedWatch probabilities were tilted toward a pause. However, by Friday, markets were already pricing in more than 64% chance of a rate cut when John Williams  signalled that the Fed could still lower rates in the near term.
  Since his remarks, those odds have shifted further, with the probability of a cut this December now above 73% and at their highest so far.

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• The Trump administration’s contingency planning for its tariff regime emerged, published by Bloomberg on 23 November, through a report based on background briefings from officials and recent public comments by senior advisers, rather than via any formal White House announcement.
• The reporting revealed that Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative are exploring alternative legal bases to rapidly reimpose duties if the Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s current use of emergency powers under IEEPA.
• The administration is doing this to preserve tariffs as a central tool of its economic strategy, avoid the disruption of having to unwind existing measures, and limit the risk of having to refund more than $88B in duties already collected at a time, and the full-year number is projected to reach roughly $190B.

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• Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a flagship symbol of his promise to shrink the U.S. federal government, has quietly been disbanded around November 2025 - eight months before its chartered end date of July 2026.
• DOGE has effectively been dissolved as a centralized entity, with many of its functions absorbed by the Office of Personnel Management and a new National Design Studio, while former DOGE staff have been redeployed into senior roles across agencies such as HHS, State and the Office of Naval Research. 

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• As a little more than a week has passed since the end of the shutdown, the macro calendar is finally starting to refill.
• This week brings a dense run of U.S. data: Tuesday delivers September;s PPI and retail sales, alongside November consumer confidence and October pending home sales.
• Wednesday will bring Q3 2025 GDP, PCE inflation, Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales.
• Thursday, by contrast, should be quiet, with U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving.

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• U.S. manufacturing activity slowed in November as persistent high prices weighed on demand, with the manufacturing PMI easing to 51.9 from 52.5 in October.
• Firms reported weaker growth in new orders but continued to add staff, even as rising input costs linked to looming metal tariffs emerged as a growing constraint.

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• On 15 December 2025, the SEC’s Crypto Task Force will hold a public roundtable at its Washington, D.C. headquarters to examine financial surveillance and privacy in digital assets.
• The event will focus on privacy, confidentiality and regulatory oversight in light of recent enforcement actions against tools such as Tornado Cash and Samourai Wallet and growing interest in privacy coins. 

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• Grayscale’s crypto ETF line-up is set to expand again after NYSE Arca on 21 November certified the listing and registration of the Grayscale XRP Trust ETF Shares and Grayscale Dogecoin Trust ETF Shares, clearing both converted spot products to begin trading today. 
• ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted the move on X the same day, noting that the Grayscale Dogecoin ETF ($GDOG) had been approved for NYSE listing with trading scheduled for Monday alongside a spot XRP ETF, and signalling that a Chainlink product ($GLNK) is likely to follow as soon as the week after.
• The two funds, which transition from private-placement trusts to exchange-traded funds, will join Grayscale’s wider roster of crypto vehicles and make GDOG only the second U.S. Dogecoin ETF, following the REX–Osprey product.

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• Coinbase’s CFTC-regulated derivatives arm will introduce 24/7 trading from 5 December for futures on Avalanche, Bitcoin Cash, Cardano, Chainlink, Dogecoin, Hedera, Litecoin, Polkadot, Shiba Inu, Stellar and SUI, extending the round-the-clock model it already offers for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP.
• At the same time, Coinbase is preparing U.S. “perp-style” futures on these altcoins that use funding rates to track spot prices but have a five-year expiry, further expanding the derivatives suite it has built out since acquiring Deribit.

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• South Korea’s largest crypto exchange, Upbit, is reportedly preparing for a Nasdaq IPO after tech giant Naver agreed to acquire its parent company Dunamu in a $14.5B stock-swap deal expected to be approved next week. 

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This Week’s Calendar:

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Charts of the Day:

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