FedWatch Shows Highest Cut Odds

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• Premia x Block Scholes: Introducing Kyan

• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: Rise of Perp DEXs — and how to catch the opportunity

• How did options markets react to the crypto selloff?

• Metaplanet Is Selling Vol, Who Is Next?

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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

• US data releases dominated yesterday, providing the first major read on the economy since the end of the government shutdown and helping to set the tone for markets.

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• The latest data figures show that inflation at the producer level is easing slowly.
• Core prices are rising moderately, while the headline producer inflation is broadly unchanged. At the same time, retail sales are coming in weaker than expected.
• This points to moderately persistent inflation alongside cooling demand.

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• Despite the mixed tone in the data, rate expectations moved further in a dovish direction: the CME FedWatch now assigns almost an 85% probability to a rate cut in December, the highest so far this cycle, while prediction market Polymarket is implying a similar probability at 84%.

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• Today, attention turns to the release of Initial Jobless Claims for the past week, which will offer a fresh gauge of labour-market resilience, as well as the Fed’s Beige Book.
• In the UK, markets will be focused on the Autumn Budget 2025.

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• Despite the significance of the data releases, crypto markets showed little reaction.
• BTC continues to trade in a relatively tight band around $86,000–$87,000, while ETH remains range-bound between roughly $2,900 and $3,000

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• Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, has reportedly emerged as the frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, according to Bloomberg.
• Hassett played a key role on the White House’s digital asset market working group within the National Economic Council, which this summer published a report setting out regulatory proposals for crypto, covering banking treatment, a potential crypto reserve, stablecoins, taxation and illicit finance.
• Other names still being considered include Fed Governor Christopher Waller, former Fed official Kevin Warsh, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and BlackRock fixed-income CIO Rick Rieder. If nominated by President Trump, Hassett would still require Senate confirmation.

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• Robinhood is set to expand its prediction market push by launching a new futures and derivatives exchange via a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group.
• The venture will acquire CFTC-licensed MIAXdx, meaning they can operate a full U.S. futures exchange, along with its clearing and swap execution facilities, with Miami International Holdings retaining a 10% stake.
• The new platform, expected to go live in 2026, will list futures and other derivatives linked to prediction markets, with Susquehanna acting as a day-one liquidity provider and additional market makers to follow.
• Additionally, the largest prediction market, Polymarket, announced that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has granted an Amended Order of Designation, allowing the company to operate an intermediated trading platform, meaning users can access Polymarket through regulated brokerage firms, that meets the full regulatory standards of federally supervised U.S. exchanges.

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• KakaoBank, the digital banking arm of South Korean tech giant Kakao, has moved its Korean won-pegged stablecoin project from exploration into full development, with new hiring for blockchain backend roles signalling a concrete build-out of the platform.
• The initiative sits within a broader Kakao Group push into digital finance, alongside KakaoPay’s multiple KRW stablecoin trademark filings, and comes as rival Naver pursues its own stablecoin strategy through Naver Financial’s planned merger with leading crypto exchange Upbit.
• Both firms are positioning their large payments and platform user bases as distribution rails for future won-stablecoins, in line with President Lee Jae Myung’s policy drive to promote domestic KRW stablecoins as a counterweight to dollar-denominated tokens - although progress is still constrained by unresolved regulation and the Bank of Korea’s insistence that only licensed banks should be allowed to issue such assets.

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• CleanSpark reported a “transformative” fiscal year in 2025, with revenue doubling to $766.3M and net income reaching to a $364.5M profit, as larger mining footprint allowed more revenue to turn into earnings.

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• Bitwise has launched the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF (NYSE: BWOW), offering exposure to  memecoin, Dogecoin. The fund currently holds 16,429,836.05 DOGE in trust with a 100% weight to DOGE. However, “Holdings are subject to change”.

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• Franklin Templeton has filed a Form 8-A with the SEC for its planned Solana ETF, marking one of the final regulatory steps before a potential listing.

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This Week’s Calendar:

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Charts of the Day:

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