“You got to work on him, Scott.”

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• Premia x Block Scholes: Introducing Kyan

• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: Rise of Perp DEXs — and how to catch the opportunity

• How did options markets react to the crypto selloff?

• Metaplanet Is Selling Vol, Who Is Next?

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

• BTC followed US equities for most of yesterday’s trading session, falling from $92K to a low of $88,500 in New York trading, before both BTC and the S&P 500 bounced at the end of the session. 
• As the equity market then closed, BTC continued a modest recovery from the $88K low to just under $93K. 
• That small relief rally was also accompanied by an inflow into the Spot Bitcoin ETFs — yesterday, the eleven BTC funds purchased $75.4M of bitcoins. While smaller than the average $124.8M inflow since launch, it nonetheless marked a departure from the five consecutive days of outflows that preceded yesterday. 
• ETH’s spot price followed a similar pattern too — though unlike BTC it has not yet recovered exactly back to the level it fell from. ETH traded just under $3,100 before falling to $2,900 in the evening and now trades at $3,000. 

• In options markets, the elevated levels of front end BTC volatility that has kept the term structure of vol inverted over the past week has eased slightly, now resulting in a compressed shape. ATM IV’s trade between 47-49% across all tenors. 
• A similar flattening of the term is also seen in ETH after a very temporary inversion when its spot price fell below $3,000. 
• Traders in options markets are still leaning bearish across all tenors from 7 days to 180 days for BTC — that evidence is clear when looking at BTC’s volatility smiles. For options with 7DTE, put contracts trade with a 9% premium over calls. At the back end of the term structure, that premium falls to a smaller 1.55%, though still bearish. 

• The late rally at the end of the trading session on Wall Street was enough to bring an end to a four day decline in the S&P 500 which ended up closing 0.38% higher. That was driven by speculation that Nvidia’s earnings report which was due after the market close would continue to boost the AI-driven stock market rally. 
• Indeed, the company’s earnings beat market expectations pushing Nasdaq-100 futures up 1.5% following the release. 
• Markets had estimated that Nvidia’s sales would be around $62B in the fourth fiscal quarter into January 2026; Nvidia reported expectations of $65B. 
• During the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang said. “There has been a lot of talk about an AI Bubble. From our vantage point we see something very different. … AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.”

• The probability of a December rate pause has surged higher after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced yesterday that it won’t publish an October jobs report, but instead will incorporate the October numbers into the November report which will be released after the Fed’s final meeting of the year — as such the Fed will only have September’s NFP report due later today prior to the December meeting. 
• Odds of a pause in December, which sat at a coin flip only earlier this week, is now at 68.2% — though subject to change following today’s NFP. 
• The October Fed meeting minutes released yesterday also reflected the hawkish sentiment portrayed by Chair Powell during his press conference where he claimed a December rate cut “is not a foregone conclusion, far from it.” 

• According to the minutes, “participants expressed strongly differing views” about the December meeting. “Most participants” acknowledged that additional cuts would be needed to reach a “more neutral policy stance over time”, but “several of these participants indicated that they did not necessarily view another 25 basis point reduction as likely to be appropriate at the December meeting.”
• Additionally, “Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year.” 
• Nonetheless, the minutes did also reflect the views of some of the less inflation focused hawks on the committee — “Several participants assessed that a further lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected over the coming intermeeting period.”

• President Trump added fuel to the fire also — during a speech yesterday Trump said he would have wanted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the Fed, but claimed Bessent “wants no part of it”. Trump then said regarding Chair Powell “I'll be honest, I'd love to fire his ass … The guy's grossly incompetent”. 
• Trump also jokingly said “You got to work on him, Scott. The only thing Scott's blowing it on is the Fed. Because the Fed rates are too high, Scott, and if you don't get it fixed fast, I'm going to fire your ass”. 

Watch that here: https://youtu.be/XqVzMavn0uo?t=110 

• Centralised crypto exchange Kraken has confidentially filed a draft Form S-1 registration with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in connection with a potential initial public offering of its common stock. Details such as the total number of shares to be offered and the expected price range have not yet been finalised, with the IPO expected to proceed depending on market conditions and regulatory approval.

• The Bitwise XRP ETF is scheduled to start trading today on NYSE Arca with the ticker “XRP.” This launch follows last week’s debut of the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) on Nasdaq.

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This Week’s Calendar:

Charts of the Day:

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