Truth Social Bitcoin ETF

Daily Updates:

• After announcing in late May that it would raise $2.5B to invest in Bitcoin as part of a treasury reserve strategy, President Trump’s social media company, Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG), is now advancing with its plans to launch its own Bitcoin ETF. 
• NYSE Arca, part of the New York Stock Exchange, submitted a regulatory filing with the SEC yesterday on behalf of crypto asset manager Yorkville America Digital, a partner of TMTG; if approved, the fund would trade under the name Truth Social Bitcoin ETF.
• As the Trump Organisation confirms it has no connection or involvement to Magic Eden’s “Official $TRUMP WALLET”, Donald Trump Jr. confirms an upcoming official World Liberty Financial wallet launching soon.

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• Adding to the crypto accumulation strategy company shifts, Spanish chain Vanadi Coffee SA has announced plans to invest over $1.1B in Bitcoin as part of a new treasury strategy in a bid to shift the company’s focus from their core business which reported a $3.7M loss in 2024 towards becoming a Bitcoin-reserve business.

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• Yesterday’s Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed the number of job openings in the US increased to 7.39M in April, from an upwardly revised 7.20M in March and above market expectations of 7.10M openings. The advance in openings was largely due to private-sector industries such as professional and business services as well as health care.
• While JOLTS data is a lagging indicator, given that the data is a measure of the labour market in April, the headline job openings figure validates the view of certain Fed members such as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee who recently claimed that there has been “surprisingly little direct impact in the data that’s coming out” amidst recent tariff uncertainty. 
• Other indicators in the report however do point to some labour market weakness: the number of layoffs increased by 196,000, the largest increase since July 2024 pushing the layoff rate from 1.0% in March to 1.1% and the quits rate, a measure of labor market confidence, fell to 2.0% from 2.1% in March, the biggest drop since November 2024, suggesting some workers are finding it harder to get new jobs. 

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• US equities ended the day higher on the back of the higher-than-expected job openings number in the JOLTS report and the rally was led by tech stocks: Nvidia ended yesterday’s session up +2.8%, the S&P 500 finished +0.58% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished +0.79%. 
• However, Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from 25% to 50%. 

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• Interest-rate swap markets still currently price in two rate cuts from the Fed for this year, with the first expected to come in October. 

• Crypto markets are up slightly on the day currently, though BTC continues to mostly trade around $105K. ETH is outperforming in the past 24 hours (+1.37%), having increased from a low of $2.5K at the open of Asian equities, to now changing hands at $2.6K. 
• The sideways spot price for BTC has caused at-the-money volatility across the term structure to continue a decline that began on May 25, with a 7-day volatility now teetering with 35%, while 7-day realised volatility remains flat at 31%. 
• A sharp drop in volatility expectations for 7- and 14-day options has steepened BTC’s term structure further, which still remains in stark contrast to ETH’s flat volatility curve. 
• Skew for both BTC and ETH has abated much of its negative tilt towards OTM puts and is currently close to 0% for short-tenor BTC options, and between 1 and 2% for maturities beyond 14 days, while volatility smiles across ETH’s term structure are now all neutral to call-skewed.

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• Unconfirmed news is circulating once again that Pump.fun is preparing for token sale, this time a $1B token sale at a $4B valuation. The token is expected to be offered to both public and private investors, with a possible launch in the next two weeks.

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• US Senator Cynthia Lummis has opened up discussions of a US military Bitcoin reserve “Financial security is national security. We need a strategic bitcoin reserve, and America’s military leaders agree.” 

This Week’s Calendar:

Charts of the Day: