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Last Updated:  
April 3, 2025
2 min read

No Positive Reciprocation From Markets

President Donald Trump finally announced his reciprocal tariff plans, which will see the US apply a baseline 10% tariff on all exporters to the country, with customised duties on top of that baseline. Trump has promised “these tariffs will give us growth like you haven’t seen before". Financial markets have not reciprocated that sentiment however. US equity futures had fallen as much as 4% within the announcement with BTC moving in the same direction. With it, its term structure of volatility briefly inverted. Short-tenor skews have once again crashed down towards puts, with demand lop-sided towards further protection against downward moves. For BTC, only tenors above 4 months hold a premium towards calls.

Daily Updates:

  • President Donald Trump finally announced his reciprocal tariff plans after weeks of back and forth on how the “Liberation Day” tariffs would be imposed, imposing the largest tariffs seen in America since the 1930s.
  • Trump announced that the US will apply a baseline 10% tariff on all exporters to the country, with customised duties on top of that baseline to around 60 different nations who have trade imbalances with the US. 
  • The President’s administration has calculated the reciprocal tariffs by comparing a country’s trade surplus with the US relative to the sum of that nation’s exports to the US and divided that number by two. In the case of China, who had a $295B surplus with the US, relative to $438B of exports, the ratio comes to 68% and in turn the US will impose reciprocal tariffs of 34%. However, in China’s case, that 34% will be added on top of the already imposed 20% duties tied to fentanyl trafficking, meaning tariffs on Chinese imports will be above 50%, and close to the 60% the President initially campaigned on.
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