Crypto Rebounds

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• How did options markets react to the crypto selloff?

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• Metaplanet Is Selling Vol, Who Is Next?

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• Bybit x Block Scholes August Volatility Review

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• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: What will drive crypto in Q3 2025?

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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves:

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Daily Updates:

• After a record breaking $19B in liquidations following President Trump’s re-escalation of the US’s trade war with China, a Sunday Truth Social post has allowed for a significant rebound in crypto asset prices.
• In our note on Friday, found here, we covered President Trump’s announcement that China was being “very hostile” towards the US and his threat of a “massive increase in tariffs. Trump’s message was in reaction to an unveiling of new export controls from China on products containing even a 0.1% trace of certain rare earth materials.
• The post resulted in the S&P 500 closing with its biggest loss since April 10 — a selloff likely exacerbated by an already fragile risk-on sentiment in US equities amidst fears of an AI bubble. 
• Trump then announced in a separate post that the US would impose an additional 100% on top of any tariffs China is currently paying. That message came after the close of US equities. 

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• Following the major selloff in crypto prices on Friday night, Trump’s willingness to renegotiate (or as recent headlines have put it — TACO), have bolstered a notable recovery in spot prices. 
• On Sunday he said “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”
• During the height of the Friday crash, BTC experienced a very short wick to $102K on Binance exchange, though fell as low as $105K on most other crypto exchanges. 
• It has since recovered significantly, trading at $115K – though still remains more than 7% below the $126K all time high it traded at only one week ago. 
• ETH is up 8% on the day, trading at $4,100, though plummeted from a level of $4,700 last week. 
• Many other altcoins that were hit harder also remain far lower than the levels they dropped from, despite Trump’s conciliatory stance. 

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• On Sunday, a spokesperson from the Ministry of Commerce in China answered a number of questions from reporters in a statement justifying China’s new export controls: 

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“China’s countermeasures are necessary passive defensive actions aimed at safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese industries and enterprises”

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“Frequently threatening high tariffs is not the right approach to engaging with China. China's position on a tariff war is consistent: we do not want one, but we are not afraid of one. China urges the US to correct its erroneous practices as soon as possible”

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“I want to emphasize that China's export controls do not constitute export bans. As long as the export application is for civilian purposes and complies with regulations, it will be approved.”

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• Speaking on Fox News, Vice President JD Vance said “It’s going to be a delicate dance, and a lot of it is going to depend on how the Chinese respond.”

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• On Friday, in our daily commentary, we noted that

“BNB, which has rallied more than 15% in the past 7 days, buoyed by a memecoin mania that’s gripped the Binance smart chain.”

• Now, BNB’s price action is once again making headlines. After dropping to lows of around $985 on Friday, the token has since surged to roughly $1,375, reaching a new ATH.

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• The term structure of ATM implied volatility for BTC has now disinverted, though the curve has shifted up in a parallel manner since this time last week. Across all tenors, IV is 4-5  vol points higher, indicating that options traders expect the volatility shock to persist beyond just the short term. 
• ETH’s ATM implied volatility reacted more sensitively to BTC’s during the selloff and has failed to fully disinvert just yet. One-week contracts traded with an IV as high as 86% over the weekend, before dropping just below 70% — that contrasts 180-day options which trade with a volatility of 65%. 
• ETH traders also look more bullish in the long-term relative to BTC options traders. Tenors above 90-days all have a skew that favours call options, relative to the bearish-neutral skew on similar dated BTC options. 

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• Gold prices surged to new record highs in Asian trading on Monday. Spot gold rose 1.3% to $4,070.29, briefly touching an all-time high of $4,078.05 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures climbed 1.6% to $4,089.45. Gold has now risen over 55% year-to-date.

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• Hyperliquid will enable HIP-3 during today’s network upgrade, switching on permissionless deployment of perpetual markets. This will empower developers to launch perpetual decentralized exchanges (perp DEXs) directly on HyperCore by staking 500,000 HYPE tokens.
• According to the protocol, HIP-3 represents a major step toward full decentralization of market listings, enabling “builder-deployed perpetuals” without centralized approval. The upgrade integrates with HyperEVM for smart contract execution and governance, and incorporates safeguards such as validator slashing and open interest caps to ensure market stability.

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• As Bitcoin’s price has dropped from its all-time high, MARA Holdings has bought 400 more BTC today at 00:21:39 UTC, for about $46.31M, roughly $115,775 per coin, increasing its total holdings to 53,250 BTC.

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• Following Friday’s market volatility, Binance announced it had distributed $283M to users affected by technical glitches caused by the extreme market volatility and covered losses from de-pegged assets such as USDE, BNSOL, and WBETH, with all affected users reimbursed within 24 hours. 
• The de-pegging followed the Friday downturn, with prices bottoming on Binance between 21:20 and 21:21 UTC and severe de-pegs starting after 21:36 UTC. 

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• According to onchain data, a crypto whale trader took major short positions ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement realising profits estimated between $190M and $200M.
• The trader opened a 10x leveraged short on 6,189 BTC worth $752.9M with a liquidation price of $130,810, and a 12x leveraged short on 81,203 ETH valued at $353.1M with a liquidation price of $4,589 on decentralised perpetual exchange (DEX), Hyperliquid,.
• Roughly 30 minutes before Trump’s post, which triggered Bitcoin’s fall from above $122,000 to briefly below $102,000, the whale doubled down on these short positions. According to on-chain data, the trader closed about 90% of the Bitcoin shorts and fully exited the Ethereum shorts near the market bottom. 

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This Week’s Calendar:

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Charts of the Day:

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