Thahbib Rahman
Research Analyst
Last Updated:
November 27, 2025
•
3 min read
Crypto Climb Before Thanksgiving
Initial US jobless claims for the week ending 22 November fell by 6K to 216K, the third consecutive decline, beating expectations for 225K and returning to the lowest level since February. BTC rebounded from last week’s lows near $81K to around $91.8K, while ETH pushed back above $3K, with CME FedWatch now pricing the probability of a December Fed cut at over 85%. On the product side, Grayscale has filed to convert its $196M Zcash Trust into a spot ETF (ticker: ZCSH) on NYSE Arca, targeting one of the first US vehicles focused on a privacy token. In parallel, Xapo’s Byzantine BTC Credit Fund has accumulated roughly $100M in allocations since launch as Australia moves ahead with its Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025, which would require digital asset and tokenised custody platforms to obtain an AFSL and operate under existing financial and consumer law.
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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves
Daily Updates:
- On Wednesday, the U.S. released Initial Jobless Claims data on the period ending November 22nd.
- New claims fell by 6,000 from the previous week’s 222K to 216K.
- This marked a third consecutive decline, bringing filings back to their lowest level since February and remaining below market expectations for an increase to 225K.
- Today is expected to be a quiet day in the U.S. due to Thanksgiving, with no major data releases scheduled.
- Yesterday evening, both BTC and ETH moved higher. BTC rebounded sharply, climbing to around $91,800 after last week’s slide towards $81,000, while ETH reached above the $3K level.
- CME FedWatch has once again raised the probability of a December rate cut, which now stands at over 85%.
- Grayscale has filed with the SEC to convert its $196M Zcash Trust into a spot ETF, aiming to list on NYSE Arca under the ticker ZCSH and positioning it as one of the first privacy-token-focused ETFs in the US.
- Xapo Bank is expanding access to its yield-bearing Bitcoin lending vehicle, the Xapo Byzantine BTC Credit Fund, which has already attracted around $100M in member allocations since its 2024 launch in partnership with Hilbert Group as independent investment manager.
- Positioned as a Bitcoin-focused income product, the fund deploys deposited BTC via an institutional credit process to generate yield for long-term holders, sitting alongside Xapo’s offering of bitcoin-backed USD loans of up to $1M and interest-bearing bitcoin and fiat accounts.
- Australia’s Treasury has submitted the Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025 to parliament, following a draft consultation in September.
- The bill would require digital asset and tokenised custody platforms to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence and broadly bring crypto within existing property, consumer and financial law frameworks, with the government emphasising stronger investor protections while still supporting innovation in a market where millions of Australians now use or invest in digital assets.
This Week’s Calendar:
Charts of the Day:
Free
PREMIUM
Institutional
Crypto Climb Before Thanksgiving
Initial US jobless claims for the week ending 22 November fell by 6K to 216K, the third consecutive decline, beating expectations for 225K and returning to the lowest level since February. BTC rebounded from last week’s lows near $81K to around $91.8K, while ETH pushed back above $3K, with CME FedWatch now pricing the probability of a December Fed cut at over 85%. On the product side, Grayscale has filed to convert its $196M Zcash Trust into a spot ETF (ticker: ZCSH) on NYSE Arca, targeting one of the first US vehicles focused on a privacy token. In parallel, Xapo’s Byzantine BTC Credit Fund has accumulated roughly $100M in allocations since launch as Australia moves ahead with its Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025, which would require digital asset and tokenised custody platforms to obtain an AFSL and operate under existing financial and consumer law.
Free
PREMIUM
Institutional
FedWatch Shows Highest Cut Odds
US data showed sticky-but-easing producer inflation and softer retail sales, yet December cut odds still pushed towards ~85% on CME FedWatch/Polymarket. Crypto barely reacted, with BTC pinned around $86k–87k and ETH near $2.9k–3k ahead of jobless claims, the Beige Book and the UK Autumn Budget. Structural/flow positives include Hassett’s emergence as Fed chair frontrunner with digital-asset credentials, further CFTC normalisation of prediction markets (Robinhood/SIG venture, Polymarket), KRW stablecoin build-out from Kakao/Naver, strong FY25 earnings from CleanSpark, and new ETF supply via Bitwise’s DOGE product and Franklin Templeton’s near-term Solana ETF.
Free
PREMIUM
Institutional
Solana ETFs See Strong Monday Inflows
Bitcoin slipped 1.40% to around $87K after briefly touching $88K, while ether fell 2.23% to the $2,900 area after approaching $3,000; over the past five days, BTC is up just 0.55% versus a 0.96% gain in the S&P 500 as Fed cut odds for 25bps in 2025 now exceed 80%. Solana declined 1.70% after nearly hitting $140, even as US spot SOL ETFs recorded their 20th consecutive session of net inflows, pulling in $58M on Monday and lifting cumulative net inflows to $568M and AUM to roughly $844M (about 1.1% of SOL market cap). Flows were also strong in XRP, where spot ETFs saw $164M of net inflows on Monday (their second-largest day on record), while Grayscale’s new spot DOGE ETF, GDOG, launched with $1.41M in first-day trading volume. CME Group’s crypto derivatives complex set a new all-time daily volume record on 21 November with 794,903 contracts traded, driving average daily crypto volumes up 132% year-on-year to ~$12B and open interest up 82% to ~$26.6B.