BTC Dominance Declines Further

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• Premia x Block Scholes: Introducing Kyan

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• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: Rise of Perp DEXs — and how to catch the opportunity

• How did options markets react to the crypto selloff?

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• Metaplanet Is Selling Vol, Who Is Next?

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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

• A modest rebound past $93K yesterday quickly fizzled out, and BTC once more fell to $90K before bouncing off that level. Interestingly, over the past 24 hours, altcoins have shown stronger resilience relative to BTC. ETH is up 0.27% over the same period, SOL is up 1.54%, while BTC trades 0.14% lower. 
• Additionally, it is interesting that BTC dominance (including stablecoins) has dropped from 59.36% to 55.75% in the past 24 hours. The drop in BTC’s spot price alongside a decline in its market-cap dominance adds some more evidence to altcoins holding up slightly stronger in yesterday’s session. 

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• As we have highlighted over the past week, Spot ETFs for both BTC and ETH are still continuing their streak of outflows – BTC Spot ETFs sold $372.8M worth of bitcoins yesterday, while ETH-based ETFs saw outflows of $74.2M. 
• In derivatives markets, the term structure of volatility for ETH has largely disinverted now, as ATM IV trades between 72% and 74% at all tenors. However, that marks a contrast to the vol term structure for BTC – that still remains significantly inverted, with 7D options trading at 55%, relative to the 49% levels at the back end of the term. 
• The put-call skew ratio for short-dated BTC options still remains strongly bearish, with OTM puts commanding a 10% vol premium to call options. That therefore suggests traders are willing to pay for more downside protection in BTC than they are in ETH, where put-call skew on similar-dated options is -6%.

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• On Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 0.83%, marking its fourth consecutive daily loss, while a drop in Big Tech pushed the Nasdaq-100 down by 1.2%. Part of that move was a 2.8% drop in Nvidia, where markets are crucially awaiting an earnings report due to be released later today. 

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• The past two weeks has seen a slew of Fed policymakers step up their concerns over the lack of progress on inflation — and thus advocating for a potential pause in December. 
• Yesterday, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin (a non-voting member) provided a more optimistic outlook on inflation however, leaning towards a more dovish view that the labour market may be weaker than what is being signalled by the current available data. 
• At an event yesterday Barkin said, “Our outreach suggests a somewhat weaker labor market than these numbers suggest”, citing recent layoff announcements by companies such as Amazon, Verizon and Target as further “cause for caution”. 
• Additionally, the Richmond president said that “If you ask businesses how they see the labor market today, they say, ‘balanced.’ But as they describe that ‘balance’ in more detail, it doesn’t seem so.”
• According to conversations with his contacts, he also believes that “inflation remains somewhat elevated but isn’t likely to increase much.”

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• President Trump told reporters at the Oval Office yesterday “I think I already know my choice” in regards to who he wants to chair the Federal Reserve after Chair Powell’s term ends in May 2026. 
• While he failed to specify exactly who he had in mind, he said “I’d love to get the guy currently in there out right now [Powell], but people are holding me back.”
• Scott Bessent said that the list of potential contenders consists of: current Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder.
• “We have some surprising names and we have some standard names that everybody’s talking about,” Trump said. “And we may go the standard way. It’s nice to every once in a while go politically correct.”

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• Centralised exchange (CEX) Kraken has secured $800M in funding which will be used to expand global operations, reinforce their regulatory presence and grow their product offering through internal development and selective acquisitions.
• They have outlined intentions to enter additional markets in Latin America, Asia Pacific and EMEA, while extending their range beyond cryptocurrencies to include more asset classes, new trading features, staking services, broader payment capabilities and strengthened institutional tools.

• The main tranche was backed by major institutional participants such as Jane Street, DRW Venture Capital, HSG, Oppenheimer Alternative Investment Management and Tribe Capital, along with a notable allocation from the family office of Kraken Co-CEO Arjun Sethi.
• Additionally, they have entered a partnership with Citadel Securities for a $200M strategic investment, valuing the company at $20B. Citadel Securities will support Kraken liquidity support, risk-management expertise and insights into market structure.

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• New Hampshire has approved a $100M Bitcoin-backed conduit bond, making it the first U.S. state to greenlight a municipal bond structure secured by BTC rather than taxpayers.
• The state’s Business Finance Authority will oversee the deal without taking on credit risk, while over-collateralised Bitcoin held by BitGo protects investors.
• Structured by Wave Digital Assets and Rosemawr Management, the bond is intended as a template for bringing digital assets into the $140T global debt market, with fees and potential collateral gains directed to New Hampshire’s Bitcoin Economic Development Fund.

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• Fidelity has launched its first Solana exchange-traded fund, the Fidelity SOL Fund (FSOL), becoming the fourth issuer to bring a SOL ETF to market and the first from the firm to feature staking.
• The fund, which follows Monday’s SEC Form 8-A filing, will stake a portion of its Solana holdings to help secure the network while passing through staking rewards to investors as yield. Fidelity will waive both management and staking fees until 18 May 2026, after which FSOL will charge a 0.25% expense ratio and a 15% staking fee.

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This Week’s Calendar:

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Charts of the Day:

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